231 thousand deaths are expected in fourth wave

Mexico City.— Faced with the lurking of a fourth wave of Covid-19, in the next four months Mexico could, in the worst scenario, increase the number of deaths from this disease by 58 percent, that is, 231 thousand deaths, according to a projection of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

This extreme would occur if variants appeared that spread twice as fast, if people stopped wearing a mask, and if mobility increased.

The health research center proposes, from the 399 thousand deaths accumulated until November 22, three scenarios that consider continuing with the current scenario, an optimal one in which the use of face masks in universal and another catastrophic, that is, If people stop wearing mask and mobility will increase.

In a desirable scenario where the use of a mask is widespread and healthy distance measures are maintained, deaths would add up to 554,296 cases, while in the worst-case scenario, accumulated deaths from Covid-19 would amount to 630,642 cases, which represents an increase of 58 percent compared to the figure registered until November 22.

Andreu Comas, virologist of the Mexican Genomic Surveillance Consortium, warned that Mexico could experience the worst scenario in the coming months, because the vaccination strategy has not been the best, the use of face masks is on the decline among the population and the authorities continue relaxing prevention measures. He gave as an example the case of the governor of Campeche, Layda Sansores, who declared the use of face masks optional.

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