A triple increase, with 75 interest points instead of the “normal” 25, would mean that the Riksbank doubles the key interest rate in one fell swoop from 0.75 percent to 1.5 percent. Some analysts believe there could even be a quadruple increase of 100 points.
A substantial cooling is considered by many economists to be necessary because inflation has time and again become even higher than feared. The Riksbank’s goal is for the long-term price increase rate to be 2 percent – in August it was 9 percent.
– I think the Riksbank should have acted between meetings this summer. We have had a record weak krona and inflationary pressure that has ended up on the upside that the Riksbank has missed, says Mattias Persson, chief economist at Swedbank.
However, he understands that the Riksbank, like central banks around the world, ended up skewed in its inflation assessments. Now you are therefore forced to raise the interest rate significantly to slow down price increases – and this on the threshold of a deep recession which would actually need stimulus in the opposite direction.
Tough winter awaits
Many households, especially those with large mortgages, risk having a tough time when incomes are eaten up by rising prices – not least for food, energy and fuel – while the loans also become more expensive. Seen in the rearview mirror, many people would have been wise to reduce their summer holiday budget, says Seyran Naib:
– Maybe it would have been better to save that money. It will be a hard winter for many and the question is whether households have really understood how tough it can be.
By all accounts, Tuesday’s interest rate hike will not be the last either. Economists expect that it will be followed by several and that the key interest rate next summer will be 3.5 percent.
Mortgage interest rates are usually – roughly calculated – about 2 percentage points higher. This means that a loan of one million will then cost roughly SEK 4,600 a month before interest deduction.