After stocks on soybeans, the blue dollar jumped and the financiers fell: how can prices continue, according to experts

The blue dollar jumped $10 this Tuesday Y closed at $287the highest value in three weeks, while the financial dollars that are traded in the stock market, counted with liquidation Y MEPthey went down to the end in $302.89 and $294.44, respectively.

Analysts considered that this behavior of the parallel dollars was a “logical reaction” to the stocks imposed on agro-export companies that liquidated the soybean dollar, which will not be able to access the official exchange market or operate with MEP and CCL.

Likewise, in the market they consider that changing the rules of the game of the soybean dollar and the short circuits around the scope of the new exchange restriction between the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank “greatly damages credibility”which does not contribute to the exchange calm.

And it is that the monetary entity, in the first statement issued on Tuesday, indicated that the exchange restriction reached all the economic agents that liquidated the soybean dollar at $200. But, late in the day, given the discomfort it caused in the economic portfolio, he modified it and clarified that producers as human beings could access any foreign exchange market.

In any case, the president of the Argentine Rural Society, Nicolás Pino, said that the BCRA ambushed soybean traders, while the Secretary of Agriculture, Juan José Bahillo, admitted in radio statements that he learned of the measured two minutes before it spread.

Impaired confidence

Despite the new restriction, the soybean complex contributed this Tuesday u$s334,987 million and has accumulated income of US$4,212 million since the beginning of September, and the BCRA registered this Tuesday a net purchaser balance of US$180 million and total purchases for some US$2,538 million in the month.

The blue dollar jumped $10 this Tuesday and closed at $287

However, in the market they clarify that this liquidation corresponds to soybeans that were previously sold to the measure therefore, the impact of the restriction could be felt more in the coming days.

In this sense, analysts Delphos Investment warned that “these twists and turns can be counterproductive, as they add noise to the soybean complex in the short term, and they can stop the very good performance of the soybean dollar and thus make it difficult to meet the goal of net reserves with the IMF at the end of the month.

In turn, the financial analystor Christian Buteler He questioned the internal ones within the government for the measure and said that “the worrying thing is that they work without coordination when in a situation as delicate as Argentina is this time of measures have to be agreed one hundred percent.”

For its part, Emiliano Anselmi, leader of the PPI macroeconomic team asserted that “it is a breach of the rule created just two weeks ago that greatly damages the credibility of the new economic management, and that additionally shows short circuits between Economy and the BCRA, since it seemed a unilateral measure of the monetary entity”.

In Aurum Values evaluated that the foreign exchange restriction “It deteriorates confidence in the measures that the Ministry of Economy can take”while affirming that the pesos that were issued for the soybean dollar “have already been left loose in the market (for the equivalent of more than 12% of the Monetary Base) and that even when that sector could not access the MEP the circulation of those pesos in the economy will put pressure in one way or another on the goods market (inflation) or the foreign exchange market (rise in free dollars or demand for importables with falling reserves).”

Blue dollar: after the jump, will it continue to rise?

The Economist Frederick Glustein considered that andThe rebound of the blue was due to the impact of the recent BCRA measure, but also “due to the multiple restrictions on the purchase of dollars for those who have requested the energy subsidy.”

Despite the foreign exchange restrictions on soy agro-exporters, the BCRA managed to buy US$180 million this Tuesday

Despite the foreign exchange restrictions on soy agro-exporters, the BCRA managed to buy US$180 million this Tuesday

For Buteler, “the impact on blue that we saw is logical” and commented that “today, when you talked to the tables, they said that although the price rose there was not a large volume of operations; it was more inquiries than anything else”.

“If it remains in more queries than anything else, the price may go back a bit, if these queries go to specific operations and these values ​​are validated, it will rise,” he said.

However, Buteler argued that “there are weights for it to continue rising, because these pesos that were issued (for the soybean dollar) can put pressure, and when the dollar race begins, you don’t know where it ends”.

“Last time (in July, in the midst of uncertainty over the resignation of Martín Guzmán) they took it to $350. Can that happen again? And if it can, because you have more pesos than before. That’s why it was so important to try not to make waves in the foreign exchange market, because today you have more raw material to put pressure on the exchange rate,” he reasoned.

In this context, the analyst explained “the more you close a channel, in this case access to the MEP and the CCL, you transfer demand from the financial markets to the informal one, and that demand is going to produce two things: an increase in price, which is what was seen today, and that the reference value of the dollar becomes the market that you can access, that is, the blue”.

“It gives consistency to a small and not very transparent market, when it should be sought that the reference is the most transparent, the one that handles silver in white, not the one that handles silver in black,” he lashed out.

The short circuits between Massa and Pesce due to the exchange restriction on soybeans sow doubts in the market

The short circuits between Massa and Pesce due to the exchange restriction on soybeans sow doubts in the market

For its part, Anselmi judged that “the government continues to have a wrong approach, the problem is weight flight and that you are not going to stop it with controlsthe market will find its way, today you had a test, you limit one so that it does not rise and the only one that remains free rises”.

Blue dollar: to what value can it climb?

Glustein forecasts that the blue “will go with an upward march due to the restriction in supply, and it will reach $300 again in the short term”and estimated that the rise could be “especially at the beginning of next month when the demand increases due to salary collection”.

Also, the economist Natalia Motyl He pointed out that “those soybeans who cannot access the CCL and the MEP will end up in blue” for which he predicted that the informal dollar will take “a leap towards a new balance”.

“The flat is at $300, today, in the best of scenarios. I think it’s a trend that will continue until mid-October. But at the end of the year we will most likely see a jump in the blue dollar because the model is exhausted. The exchange rate is very behind, they will lose reserves again and that generates more pressure on the foreign exchange market, which will position it to a new equilibrium, “he argued.

For its part, Anselmi He maintained that “the market reacted with the expected logic, access to financiers was prohibited for part of the demand and the only dollar that was not intervened, which is the blue, rose.”

Given this scenario, the analyst believes that the blue has an upward path because the exchange restriction for the beneficiaries “of energy and water subsidies is going to remove demand from MEP that will surely go to be dollarized to the blue.”

Due to recent exchange restrictions, the blue dollar will continue to rise, according to market expectations

Due to recent exchange restrictions, the blue dollar will continue to rise, according to market expectations

At your discretion, immediately the blue will tend to “closer to the MEP that today is at $295”.

Financial dollars: will they continue to fall?

For Butelergiven the greater exchange restrictions, “Financial dollars could continue to go down, maybe up to $10 more, but not much more.”

In addition, the analyst also said that “a stronger dollar worldwide, which is what occurs when there is a rate hike by the Federal Reserve -as the market expects that this body will do this Wednesday- obviously complicates and there may be a little more outflow of dollars via CCL”.

of the same look, Motyl predicts that “financial dollars will go down due to a drop in demand but not much more.”

“The pressure was generated by the issuance of soybean dollar pesos in September, so in October it is expected to return to the same value as a few weeks ago,” he said.

Thus, the economist estimated that financial dollars “They’re going to be oscillating until October at $290, it’s not going to be lower than this, nor are they going to be above $300.”

Due to the greater stocks on soybeans, financial dollars could go down a little more

Due to the greater stocks on soybeans, the market believes that financial dollars could go down a little more

“Then, beyond the very short term, the dynamic is that the pressures on financial dollars increase until the end of the year until the Government manages to anchor devaluation expectations that today I see as quite unlikely,” he projected.

Instead, Anselmi argued that “Given the number of pesos in the economy and the expectations that have recently been affected by this measure, we think there is room for them to rise.”

“With more controls you don’t stop the rise. No one is going to stay in pesos because they are forced, they will find a way to jump the stocks barrier,” he said. In this framework, the specialist calculated that the CCL “For the amount of liquidity we think up to $330 could go.”

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