“How many deaths can we actually afford?” “Hard but fair” was a heated discussion about a way out of Putin’s war.
For the time being, Vladimir Putin has refrained from further escalating his war of aggression against Ukraine. During the celebrations of the victory over Nazi Germany, the Russian President announced neither a general mobilization nor the use of additional weapon systems – or even worse. But what’s next? The guests also dealt with this question on Monday evening “Hard but fair”.
“Hard but fair”: These guests were there
- Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU), member of the Bundestag since 2009, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, former colonel
- Claudia Majormilitary expert, heads the security policy research group of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin
- Michael Roth (SPD), member of the Bundestag, chairman of the foreign affairs committee, member of the SPD presidium and party executive
- WolfgangMerkelpolitical scientist and democracy researcher
- Gesine Dornbluthjournalist, was a correspondent for Deutschlandradio in Moscow from 2012 to 2017
Ukraine war: A bit of reality for Putin
First, the group classified, as you can see from Putin’s speech. One could sense an approximation to reality because the Russian President spoke clearly of the Russian soldiers who died, said Claudia Major from the Science and Politics Foundation. Overall, however, Putin clearly stuck to his narrative. “This is not a departure from the goals,” Major stated.
“It could have been better,” said Wolfgang Merkel. like that Putin talk about a victory and thus be able to open up an entry into saving face. At least the worst case scenario did not occur: “A general mobilization would have been horrendous – but also the admission that it was not a ‘special operation’,” said the political scientist.
Ukraine war – background and explanations for the conflict
Ukraine: supply arms or negotiate?
So much for the current. But the round got even stronger when it came to a crucial question of this war: Should the West continue to strengthen Ukraine, so that Russia will ultimately be fundamentally weakened; Or rather, one should get one as soon as possible armistice negotiate?
Merkel advocated the latter approach. The longer the War the more deaths there will be, he warned. “How many deaths can we actually afford before we come to a ceasefire?” asked Merkel. Instead of just up weapons to set it, one must also proceed politically. More on the subject: May 9 speech – Vladimir Putin puzzles the world
In this context, the political scientist also recalled the Russian nuclear arsenal and the possibility of further escalation. “A Putinwho has completely lost face, has his back against the wall.”
For Ukraine it’s war or submission
Basically, this is the problem that is likely to concern the hesitant Chancellor Olaf Scholz from time to time. It is entirely plausible, but there are also good counter-arguments. These were primarily formulated by Claudia Major. First, have the Ukraine not at all the choice between war and peace – only between war and submission. And secondly have Russia no interest in real negotiations.
Major immediately provided the reason for this attitude. In the end, it’s about the actual political conflict: “Ukraine wants to be free, but Russia denies it the right to exist.” Also read: Strange alliance – What unites Lafontaine, Schwarzer and Maassen
Ukraine crisis – all the news about the conflict
“Hard but fair”: The conclusion
This edition of “Hart aber fair” was enlightening because it made it clear how big the dilemma this war is. Anyone who relies on negotiations runs the risk of Ukraine to be naively and passively handed over to Putin. Anyone who wants to see Russia so weakened that the Ukraine has a good negotiating position, risks an escalation – probably unintentional on all sides.
What is the safe way out? I didn’t know a sure answer to that this round. But that wasn’t even necessary.
“Hard but fair”: Those were the past programs
This article first appeared on waz.de.
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