Dollar, fixed term, shares and more: the 5 keys of the week to know what to invest in

Facing a new week that begins, these are the key variables of the Argentine economy that must be taken into account

By Christian A. Buteler

09/19/2022 – 07:20 a.m.

Dollar, fixed term, shares and more: the 5 keys of the week to know what to invest in

Since “Keys of the Week” We will try to bring them closer data to take into account in the week that begins, in a few lines and concretely the main variables that affect the investor. What he market watch and wait for the next 5 days.

1 dollar

  • BLUE $277 +1.09% weekly
  • MEP $293.38 +8.10% weekly
  • CCL $302.30 +6.96% weekly

Gap with the official dollar

  • BLUE 86%
  • MEP 97%
  • LCC 103%

Strong rebound from free dollars. Worrying signal and data to monitor in the week that begins. The soybean dollar brings dollars for reserves but puts pesos that can put pressure on free dollars. It was a danger that loomed for later not so soon.

If the market continues to press, it has the necessary weights for a new cumshotshould not happen but the risk exists.

2- Fees

  • Traditional fixed term 6.25% TEM
  • Fixed term UVA: 7.0% for the current month, 6.5% and 6% estimated for the following months
  • US 10-year rate 3.45 +13 bp

Last week we had inflation data and BCRA rate hike. Everything was accommodated one step higher. Despite the rise, the traditional fixed term rate continues to be below the yield of grape fixed terms.

The bad data core inflation in the American economy known last week puts more pressure on the FED to raise rates next Wednesday. The market consensus marks a rise between 75/100 bp.

3- Actions

  • Merval 145,741.82 +0.76 weekly
  • Merval at u$s483.95 -6.02% weekly
  • S&P 500 3,873.33 -4.77% weekly

Local market: It manages to hold hands with YPF, which continues its upward streak, a plan to buy back shares by the oil company was revealed. Despite a complicated external context in its version in pesos, I maintained the positive result. It will be difficult to maintain this reality if the international market continues its downward trend. In his version in dollars, he could not avoid the impact of the strong jump and lost the $ 500 that he had worked so hard to achieve.

American market: A bad figure of inflation hit the waterline of the American market. This week there will be a rate hike and beyond it it will be important to listen to the words of the FED.

4- Bonuses

  • Country risk 2383 bp +60bp

Dollar bonds: bad week for Argentine debt in foreign currency, after an interesting rebound they returned to show falls but without returning to the lows seen in July. Both zero or dollar-adjusted local currency debt and equities have shown much higher signs of recovery than dollar bonds.

Hand in hand with a high rate of inflation and a rise in the rate established by the BCRA, bonds in pesos maintain their upward trend. A successful new debt placement last week auspicious calm for the debt in local currency.

5 – Commodities

Closing / Weekly performance

  • GOLD US$ 1,683.50 -2.61%
  • SILVER US$19.38 +3.25%
  • WTI US$ 84.76% -2.34%
  • NATURAL GAS US$ 7.76 -3.00%
  • CORN US$ 267.41 –0.84%
  • WHEAT U$S 315.45 -1.55%
  • SOYBEAN U$S 531.33 +2.32%

except the Prayed that can be driven by hedging against world inflation it will be very difficult for the rest of the commodities not to be affected by a stronger dollar.

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