Is Tod’s rise already over?

Let’s start by reporting a very important fact. Tod’s shares have consistently outperformed the industry average for the past five years. Even since the beginning of the year, things have not been going very well. With a negative performance of 33%, Tod’s stock outperformed the reference sector average which lost 13%.

So let’s see what the prospects can be in the short term. For the medium / long term, however, please refer to the report entitled For Tod’s the level of bullish reversal could still be far away.

Is Tod’s rise already over?

The stock title Tod’s (MIL: TOD) closed the session on 2 August at 33.42 euros, down by 3.07% compared to the previous session.

Daily time frame: the indications of the graphic analysis

Looking at the graph, it is immediately clear how Tod’s future will be decided at the 34.74 euro and 32.98 euro levels. So, is Tod’s upside already over?

A weekly close above 34.74 euros could open the doors to reaching the most probable target in the 36.70 area. Then, the other objectives could be placed in the area of ​​€ 41.82 and € 47.

If, on the other hand, the stock were to go down, then it could become very probable to reach the 31 euro area, first, and then the 29 euro area.


The evaluation of the Tod’s stock

If you look at the stock from the perspective of market multiples, the situation is quite contradictory. For example, the price to turnover (PS) ratio, equal to 1.2, is much higher than the average of the reference sector which is 0.7. So even if not very high at all, Tod’s PS is higher than that of the average of its competitors. If, on the other hand, we look at the Price to Book ratio, things change completely with Tod’s stock undervalued by over 60%.

If, on the other hand, we look to the future, things change drastically. Analysts are clearly optimistic about the prospects for turnover and have recently revised upwards the estimates on the evolution of the business. So if you compare the Price to Sales (PS) ratio with the Fair PS it turns out that the stock is undervalued by over 30%. It should be noted that the Fair PS calculation is reported in some specialized magazines and is derived from a model that takes into account the growth prospects, the sector to which the company belongs and the risk factor.

Also according to the fair value, calculated with the discounted cash flow method, the Tod’s stock is undervalued by more than 40%.

According to what is reported in the specialized magazines, the opinion of the analysts is very contradictory. On the one hand, in fact, the average consensus of analysts is underperformer. On the other hand, the target price expresses an undervaluation of around 15%.

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