According to several surveys, Together should come out on top this Sunday, at the end of the second round, without however guaranteeing an absolute majority. The absence promises to be still significant.
Just a few hours before the second round of the legislative elections, the trends are becoming clearer. If the presidential coalition, made up of Renaissance, Horizons or even Agir, wins, it is not guaranteed to have an absolute majority. As for abstention, a record in the first round, it still promises to be high. BFMTV.com takes stock of the latest polls.
Together in the lead, Nupes second
According to our latest Opinion 2022 survey carried out by the Elabe Institute for BFMTV, theExpress with our partner SFR, Ensemble could indeed obtain between 255 and 295 seats, which would represent between 55 and 95 fewer seats than in 2017. A more pessimistic estimate than that of Ifop, in a final barometer published this Fridayfor LCI and Sud Radio: according to this survey, the presidential coalition could obtain 270 to 300 seats.
The Ipsos barometer, for Radio France and France Télévisions, also published on Friday, gave 265 to 305 deputies to the outgoing presidential majority. The latter is therefore not guaranteed to obtain an absolute majority, set at 289 seats.
In particular, the Nupes (New popular ecological and social union), composed of France Insoumise, Europe Ecology The Greens, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party, given second in the ballot. The alliance would get 140 to 200 elected officials, according to the surveys. If Ipsos is counting on 140 to 180 deputies, Ifop is betting on 160 to 190. Elabe is more optimistic, with 150 to 200 elected representatives, i.e. between 77 and 127 more than in 2017.
Towards record abstention?
However, the ballot promises to be historically low for Les Républicains and the UDI, which would only obtain between 55 and 75 seats, which represents 61 to 81 fewer seats compared to 2017, according to our survey. Ifop assumes a lower trend, with 50 to 70 seats and Ipsos table between 60 and 80 seats.
The National Rally of Marine Le Pen, meanwhile, is given fourth, far behind its competitors. Ifop gives 25 to 45 seats to the far-right party and Ipsos provides a minimum of 20 seats for the far-right party. According to Elabe, he could claim between 30 and 50 seats, which would represent 22 to 42 additional seats compared to five years ago. Ipsos and Elabe agree on the other hand on a maximum of 50 seats, well below the objective of 100 deputies mentioned by Marine Le Pen.
As for abstention, it could reach a new record on Sunday. In the first round, it had reached 52.49%. According to Ipsos and Ifop, it could reach 53% in the second round, or even 56%, according to Elabe.
The Ifop-Fiducial survey for LCI and Sud Radio was carried out on June 16 and 17 by self-administered online questionnaire on a sample of 1,399 registered voters from a panel of 1,505 people representative of the French population. The margin of error is between 1 and 2.2 percentage points.
The Ipsos survey for Radio France and France Télévisions was carried out on June 15 and 16 by self-administered online questionnaire on a sample of 1,991 people registered on the electoral lists and representative of the French population. The margin of error is between 0.6 and 2.2 percentage points.
The Elabe survey for L’Express, BFMTV and SFR was carried out from June 15 to 16 by online questionnaire on a sample of 1,801 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,699 registered on the electoral lists. The margin of error is between 1 and 2.3 percentage points.