The former president of Banco Nación and the president of IERAL analyzed the alternatives that the Ministry of Economy has to avoid a devaluation
09/20/2022 – 1:50 p.m.
The Economist Charles Melconian spoke in the Rosario Stock Exchange and provided an overview of the economy and current politics. Within the framework of the 45th anniversary of the Mediterranean Foundation, the former president of Banco Nación and the President of IERAL put on the table the alternatives that the Ministry of Economy to avoid devaluation and did not rule out new restrictions on the dollar.
The economist made a reference to an eventual “additional recovery jump of the ‘exchange arrears“. “The minister wants to avoid it, the question is whether he can do it. The idea has not been eradicated to the point where the gap is 100%”. In this sense, he considered in Agrofy that with the soybean dollar advances were made.
“Devaluation expectations did not disappear, but they took a breather. The official aspiration not to devalue may require more fiscal and monetary adjustment than announced, a drop in activity or a mixture of the two. And even so, it may be insufficient “, I consider.
When speaking of the soybean dollar, he added: “We are seeing the result, it is enough to advance continue with the ‘stretching plan’. To clear (a devaluation) is another word, not yet. On October 1, something will have to be answered (for Sergio Massa), we still don’t know, but it is clear that something is coming.”
“It will be impossible for the soybean dollar to end because the sales of soybean farmers would drop to zero. They will have to look for an alternative exchange link, they will have to find it, “he said and affirmed that there will surely be changes to the tourist dollar and credit card purchases.
During the presentation, he considered that the reserves of the Central Bank and the currency gap they represent a “red light” for the exchange rate. The exchange delay (between 20 and 35%) represents a yellow/orange light and the international prices of grains are added, which fell during the last time. “Regardless of whether the goals of the agreement are met, the macroeconomic unknown with a focus on the exchange rate and inflation continues to float in the air,” he said.
Melconian: “It will be impossible for the soybean dollar to end because the sales of soybean producers would fall to zero”
The justification of the Central Bank for the “soybean dollar”
The director of the Central Bank, Agustin D’Atellisassured this Tuesday that the restrictions of access to the dollar for companies that sell soybeans, it is a measure for those who “constantly seek macroeconomic destabilization” and generate “devaluation pressure.”
The measure of the Central Bank by which companies that sell soybeans through the Export Increase Program They will not be able to access the purchase of the stock dollar -CCL or MEP- or the so-called savings dollar as of this Tuesday, which generated crosses with producers but also within the Government itself.
In the radio interview, D’Atellis warned: “There comes a time when one says that they are constantly looking for a macroeconomic destabilization that harms the rest of society,” in relation to companies that sell soybeans that sold at $200 and then dollarized. .
In this sense, he made it clear that the Government “will not give in to devaluation pressures” nor will it allow the big exporters “to go around with the dollar, widen the gap and transfer to prices, in a very complex context in inflationary terms.”
“There was an agreement, it was negotiated, the instruments were created and later it is observed that the big exporters take refuge in the dollar and widen the gap, then one says enough,” he remarked.
In this regard, he stressed that “if we are adding to the coffers of the Central Bank to reorder the macroeconomy and then you see the encouragement of returning to the dollar despite agreeing to something else, one says that they are constantly looking for a macroeconomic destabilization that harms the rest of society. “.