19.08.2021 – 09:06
Capital, G + J Business Media
Laschet clear favorite for the Chancellery // Scholz with high competence values, but without encouragement // Great optimism for the economy // Higher inflation expected
A few weeks before the federal election, the prospect of a black-green government alliance is clearly losing support among executives from business, politics and government authorities in Germany. This is a result of the latest “Elite Panel” on behalf of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the business magazine CAPITAL by the Institute for Demoskopie in Allensbach, which appears today in FAZ and CAPITAL (EVT August 19, 2021, CAPITAL 9/2021). According to this, 58 percent of the top managers and top politicians surveyed currently think a coalition of the Union and the Greens is good, nine percentage points less than at the turn of the year and eleven points less than in autumn 2019. Nevertheless, a majority of 55 percent are still on exactly this Alliance after the Bundestag election (26 percentage points less than at the turn of the year), more than 60 percent of those surveyed also hope that the FDP will participate in government, for example in a Jamaica coalition made up of the Union, Greens and FDP.
In the top candidates, Union candidate Armin Laschet is clearly ahead of his two competitors from the SPD and the Greens, Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock. If it were only up to the top managers from business and the decision-makers from politics and administration, Laschet could expect well over 60 percent approval, Scholz would come clearly behind with approval ratings of almost 20 percent, Baerbock even only about 5 percent . Especially for Scholz, these values are a damper, he tries to score points in his election campaign, especially with his experience as a minister and crisis manager. In fact, Scholz’s personal values are in some cases well ahead of Laschet in the survey, but these high values in terms of competence and assertiveness have so far been difficult to translate into real votes.
Regardless of the open election and an impending fourth corona wave, the great economic optimism has solidified among the decision-makers. 89 percent of those surveyed state that they are expecting an upswing in the next six months, only four percent are still skeptical. Compared to the last survey at the turn of the year, this is an increase in the optimists of 33 percentage points. In addition, 88 percent of managers describe the order situation in their company as “good” or “very good”. While for the vast majority the pandemic has lost its horror as a result of the vaccination campaign – 63 percent expect the corona virus to be overcome, 90 percent do not even expect a new lockdown in a fourth wave of infections – the lack of materials and raw materials is now considered a risk for the upswing: At least 70 percent believe that the delivery bottlenecks could jeopardize the upswing. And unlike most economists, the majority of business leaders expect the inflation rate to rise over the long term: 61 percent of those surveyed said that the inflation rate will level off at a higher level in the long term, only 36 percent say that the higher rates are only a temporary phenomenon .
From July 5th to 30th, the Institute for Demoskopie Allensbach surveyed 501 executives from business, politics and administration on behalf of CAPITAL and FAZ. This time among them were: 93 CEOs and managing directors of companies with at least 20,000 employees, 18 ministers, heads of states and 32 heads of federal authorities. It is thus the most prominent survey in Europe.
Original content from: Capital, G + J Wirtschaftsmedien, transmitted by news aktuell