Partial mobilization: military expert warns against the use of nuclear weapons

Vladimir Putin during his televised speech. Here he announced on Wednesday a partial mobilization for the war in Ukraine.Image: / imago images

09/21/2022, 11:45 am09/21/2022, 13:14

Joana Rettig

After Vladimir Putin put pressure on the Ukraine and the west had made insecurity in Germany widened. The military expert Ralph Thiele from the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consulting (ISPSW) warns, among other things, of a nuclear conflict.

A few days ago, Ukrainian soldiers recaptured large parts of Russian-occupied territory.

A few days ago, Ukrainian soldiers recaptured large parts of Russian-occupied territory.Image: AP / Kostiantyn Liberov

When asked by watson, Thiele said:

“Despite all the joy about tactical successes and current territorial gains for Ukraine, we are facing a foreseeable long conflict. This raises the question: What will President Vladimir Putin do? Would he resort to the use of nuclear weapons? Even if it seems unlikely to many “Moscow will use nuclear weapons in the near future. Russian military doctrine, unlike that of the West, includes the use of tactical nuclear weapons for military operations. The likelihood of their use may change as battlefield dynamics change.”

On Wednesday, Putin announced a partial mobilization. He supports the Defense Ministry’s proposal to mobilize reservists who have already served and have “relevant experience,” Putin said in a recorded televised speech.

A corresponding decree has already been signed and will come into force on Wednesday. According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, 300,000 reservists are to be mobilized.

Vladimir Putin (left) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Vladimir Putin (left) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.Image: AP / Alexander Zemlianichenko

Thiel says: “Putin has also announced the possible use of nuclear weapons – if necessary.” As a reason, Putin explained that he United States see a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity in a proxy war in Ukraine and to protect Russia and its people people use all available means.

Sanctions are also expensive for the West

A total of 25 million Russians could potentially be mobilizedShoigu said in one go interview with the state broadcaster “Russia 24”. There had previously been rumors of an impending general mobilization.

“Time is not on the side of the West,” said Thiele. “The sanctions against Russia cost the West a lot and so far have brought it little. Putin’s energy revenues have increased thanks to price hikes. So has his public support in Russia, thanks to a combination of nationalism, propaganda and fear.”

Large parts of the world, including China, India and South Africa, refused to be included in the “sanctions front” against Putin. And Thiele sees no Western strategy. He said: “The hope of some that he will soon die of an illness à la Parkinson or blood cancer is probably just a pious wish and not a strategy.”

Escalation warning

critical food shortages, energy and fertilizers, as well as the inevitable supply interruptions and price increases, maneuvered the solidarity of Western democratic societies into a bitter stress test. “The sanctions are taking a toll that is difficult to bear, not only from the European countries, but also from the rest of the world,” said Thiele.

And the ISPSW expert expects new escalations. He said this tribute heightened the urgency of an early Ukrainian victory – or at least a broader withdrawal of Russian forces front.

And further:

“Therefore, a spiral of escalation is to be expected. The West will have to step up military support for Ukraine with weapons and ammunition. Putin will have to show what strengths he has up his sleeve.”

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