During several of his press conferences, commenting on who Morena’s next presidential candidate could be, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has said that his successor will represent a new generation of politicians.
He once said that “there is a generational change, because imagine if we did not have someone to turn to, if the people of Mexico had no options, then it could even serve as an excuse or pretext to justify reelection, and that no, there should not be re-election…”
Then he was more precise when explaining that “there is a change, because it is from the generation that follows, I don’t know if I explain myself. In other words, I am 67, from 50 and up there are even women and men ”.
And last July he even identified those he considers likely candidates when defending his position that the candidate is defined through one or several polls: “it is the people who are going to decide, now there are many, many, of the liberal progressive flank, such as Claudia Sheinbaum, Marcelo Ebrard, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, Esteban Moctezuma, Tatiana Clouthier, Rocío Nahle, well, a lot; fortunately, there is a generational change ”.
How were the supposed generational changes in the past? From Lázaro Cárdenas to date, what was the age difference between each outgoing and incoming president?
Cárdenas was two years older than Manuel Ávila Camacho and he was three years older than Miguel Alemán, who in turn was 11 years younger than Adolfo Ruiz Cortines.
Ruiz Cortines was 20 years older than Adolfo López Mateos, who in turn was two years older than Gustavo Díaz Ordaz, who was 11 years older than Luis Echeverría.
Echeverría was two years younger than José López Portillo and he was 14 years older than Miguel de la Madrid, who in turn was 14 years older than Carlos Salinas.
Salinas was born three years before Ernesto Zedillo, who was nine years younger than Vicente Fox who in turn was 20 years older than Felipe Calderón.
Calderón was four years older than Enrique Peña Nieto and he was 13 years younger than Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
As can be seen, not all the successions meant a true generational change and some were a return to the past, as in the cases of Ruiz Cortines, Fox and López Obrador, who had many more years of life than their predecessors.
When he leaves office, Andrés Manuel will be a few weeks away from his 71st birthday and, as he already said, the generational change will be represented by a man or woman who today is 50 or more years old. What he did not specify is the maximum age that the candidate who will represent that generational change must be.
This age will be on October 1, 2024, when the next federal government begins, the Morenoites that AMLO mentioned: Sheinbaum 62 years old, Ebrard 65, De la Fuente 73, Moctezuma 70, Clouthier 60 and Nahle 60.
Ricardo Monreal, whose name is also pronounced as a possible Morena candidate, will be 64.
If Andrés Manuel seriously believes that there will be a generational change in the presidency, De la Fuente and Moctezuma are ruled out of the race for the candidacy. Ebrard will be the same age as AMLO when he took office and the others will be under 65 years old.
Curiously, those who, due to their age, would best represent the generational change are women: Sheinbaum, Clouthier and Nahle.
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