The inflation expected by the population for the next 12 months rose to 50.4 percent according to the average (50 percent according to the median) according to the Center for Research in Finance (CIF) of the Business School of the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
In November, the inflation expected by the population for the next twelve months was 50.4 percent according to the average and 50 percent according to the median.
The November result represents an increase of 3.7 percentage points compared to the October measurement (46.7 percent). Since June 2021, when it had reached a peak of 51.4 percent, expected inflation had been on a downward trend, reaching the lowest level since April this year in October.
Sebastián Auguste, director of the Finance Research Center of the UTDT, pointed out that “the increase in inflation expectations in November was generalized, for all regions and for different income levels. By region, GBA continues to be the one with the lowest inflation expectations (48.7 percent) and by type of income, households with lower incomes expect less inflation, although the gap has narrowed a lot. In October, high-income households expected 49.3 percent and low-income households 44.8 percent, in November it was 51.1 percent and 47.9 percent, respectively ”.
The costs of the companies, in the absence of answers to the exchange problem that created the anchor and the stocks, are calculated taking the price of the alternative dollars, above 200 pesos, when the official is 100.46 pesos.
They know that the devaluation is inevitable but the problem is that the market is convinced that there will be a doubling that will make their hedges with dollar linked bonds useless that can follow the path of the commercial dollar and not that of the financial dollar that will be higher.
For this reason, there are strong sales of these titles of which institutional investors have a large stock.
The futures market reflected this circumstance with increases of 0.04 percent by the end of December to $ 105.34, which means that they are betting on a devaluation of 3.03 percent in one month and ten days. A higher rate than the current 1 percent per month.