Why fuel prices are likely to rise again

The fall in oil prices has helped to reduce the frenzy on prices at the pump. Unfortunately, the trend could be reversed at the end of the year.

You will have to get used to paying a high price for fuel. If the average price of gasoline and diesel has been falling for several weeks, this should only be temporary with an expected rise in oil prices at the end of the year

“It lacks 1 million barrels more per day so that stocks do not fall”, summarizes on BFM Business this Wednesday Alexandre Andlauer, financial analyst at Kpler. However, if the inventory goes down, the price goes up.

“Unfortunately, you have to get used to a high oil price,” he underlines, specifying that without state aid, “we will easily be between 2.20 euros and 2.50 euros” at the pump.

Barring a recession…

“Oil prices are between 90 and 120 dollars and there is rather a risk that we will go beyond 120 dollars, he continues. On the prices at the pump, it is a little different because you go through the refiner box and we know that in Russia it will be penalized and therefore we risk having a greater difference between the price of oil and the refined price.”

Above all, the situation should continue for several years, “unless there is a global economic recession, which means a sharp drop in demand and at that time, supply would be sufficient in relation to demand. But that would be bad news,” concludes the analyst.

Initiatives to combat climate change have in fact caused a massive reduction in investments in oil infrastructure in recent years, with the consequence that an almost inexorable rise in the price of a barrel for the next decade.

As a reminder, the government will introduce a discount of 30 cents per liter of fuel in September, which will succeed the discount of 18 cents in force since April 1. But this device is not made to last.

Thomas Le Roy Journalist BFM Business

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