MILWAUKEE– Nicknamed “the Nostradamus of pollsters,” when Frank Luntz talks about elections, the American political class listens.
The focus group czar has lent his forecasting talents to a wide range of politicians, television networks and Fortune 500 companies for decades.
He is attending the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Donald Trump was formally nominated as the presidential candidate, on a ticket that will include Ohio Senator JD Vance. And his prediction about this duo may alarm Democrats.
In an interview, Luntz discussed Vance’s contribution to the campaign, four months before the election that will pit Trump, so far, against Democratic President Joe Biden.
What does Vance offer to the Trump ticket?
Clearly, it will have an impact in Ohio, but Ohio has gone Republican anyway. And Pennsylvania (where Trump was the victim of a failed assassination attempt) I’m not sure, because Trump is winning those votes on his own.
What makes (electing) JD Vance is that he offers continuity. He shows that when Trump is gone, there will be someone who will follow in his footsteps. That’s the first thing.
And number two, Ohio is one of the most important states in the U.S. Senate (to have its control) and having Vance on the ballot is fantastic for the Republican candidate nominated there. So this could have an impact on who wins the Senate in November.
And third, he’s tough. Those blue-collar, working-class voters, that understanding of voters who were traditionally Democrats and have now found a home in Donald Trump, he emphasizes that. He’s written about it, he has the intellectual backing of what Trump instinctively feels.
What do you look for in a vice president?
Someone who can take office from day one, someone who will not differ much from the President, because they are still voting for a President.
And someone who takes her job seriously. And that’s the problem with the current vice president (Kamala Harris): many people don’t believe she takes her job seriously.
Who would win if the elections were held today?
Donald Trump would be the next president. But there is no election today. We have a convention, the Democrats have a convention. Maybe… maybe! there will be one more debate. But Donald Trump is in control, not just by the polls, but by intensity.
A Trump supporter today will be a Trump voter in November. Joe Biden can’t make the same claim. They don’t have the same kind of intensity on the Democratic side as the Republicans.
Source: With information from AFP.