The Sandinistas commemorated this Friday the 45th anniversary of the revolution that overthrew the dictatorship of Anastasio Somoza Debayle by armed means, with its main protagonists – with the exception of the president, Daniel Ortega – isolated, denationalized, exiled, branded as “traitors to the homeland” and some denouncing the consolidation of a new authoritarian regime.
For sociologist, writer and political analyst Oscar René Vargas, one of the 222 Nicaraguan political prisoners exiled to the United States a year ago, the photo of July 19, 2024 means that the “dictatorship is entering the final stage,” as part of a process of implosion or internal decomposition that is gradually developing within Sandinismo.
The Sandinista commanders of the National Directorate in 1979 were: Tomás Borge, Bayardo Arce, Henry Ruiz, Jaime Wheelock, Luis Carrión, Carlos Núñez, Daniel Ortega, Humberto Ortega and Víctor Tirado.
Borge and Núñez have died; Arce maintains a low profile; Ruiz and Wheelock are far from politics; Tirado has health problems; Carrión was denationalized, exiled and branded a “traitor to the country”; Humberto Ortega is isolated and under surveillance at his home after questioning the “dictatorial” succession.
And Daniel Ortega, who led a governing junta from 1979 to 1985, presided over Nicaragua for the first time from 1985 to 1990, and has been in power since 2007, remains the only figure, along with his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, at the Sandinista commemoration.
From Sandinismo to the “family dynasty”
According to Vargas, who shared an analysis, “Ortega killed Sandinismo” because he yearns to build, together with Murillo, a “family dynasty,” and to achieve his goal they use the absolute power they have to undermine every vestige of freedom and respect for human rights, they privilege their close circles and maneuver in the “darkness” with those who pave the way for family succession.
But, for the historian, Ortega no longer resembles that political juggler capable of overcoming, patching up and overcoming a crisis, and has now entered a phase of making mistakes, losing more legitimacy, increasing his isolation, and generating panic due to his alliance with Russia, China and Iran.
“For the moment, we are witnessing a tense situation of exhaustion and waiting,” said Vargas, who believes that the Ortega-Murillo policy is to “seek ways to ensure family succession” at any cost.
The issue of family succession was the trigger for Ortega to declare his younger brother, retired general Humberto Ortega, a “traitor to the country,” the most emblematic and recent case of the fissures within Sandinismo.
The former army chief, one of the strategists of the armed insurrection against Somoza Debayle, is under surveillance at his residence in Managua after questioning the “dictatorial” succession of the head of state.
In an interview with the Argentine media outlet Infobae, published on May 19, the retired general said that the “dictatorial” power of his brother, 78, has no suitable successors, neither his wife Murillo nor any of his children, and that in the event of his absence or death, a great power vacuum will remain, which is why elections must be called.
Arrests prior to the Sandinista anniversary
According to the Nicaraguan press, after isolating the former Army chief, whose cell phones and computers were confiscated, the authorities have arrested retired general Orlando Talvera Siles and former deputy director of the National Police Jorge Guerrero, both trained in the area of intelligence.
They have also targeted Nicaragua’s vice-chancellor, Arlette Marenco, and her husband; a judge from Managua and her family; a retired Army major; and they have dismissed Sandinista mayors.
The president also cancelled the appointment of former Defense Minister Martha Elena Ruiz Sevilla – wife of the number 2 of the Army, Major General Bayardo Rodríguez – as Minister Advisor for Politics and International Affairs.
For this reason, for the former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS) Arturo McFields, the Sandinistas are celebrating the 45th anniversary of the revolution “with fury, dismissals and arrests,” including their former comrades in arms.
Retired Nicaraguan Army Major Roberto Samcam told 100% Noticias that the removal of former Sandinista leaders is an “open confrontation that Rosario Murillo has been developing since 2007,” when Ortega returned to power.
“I say Rosario Murillo because she is the most important figure. She has practically displaced Daniel Ortega from decision-making, but not from power,” he said.
According to Samcam, the purge within the Sandinistas has intensified over the past year when the issue of family succession came to the forefront, when Ortega gave full powers to one of his sons, Laureano Facundo, to sign agreements with China and Russia, two of Nicaragua’s main allies.
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