Runoff election in Turkey: Can President Erdogan stay in office after all?

Can Dündar has little hope. The well-known Turkish journalist, who has been living in exile in Berlin for several years, believes that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will win the runoff election on May 28. There is little doubt about that for him. The close result between the incumbent Turkish President and his challenger Kemal Kilidaroglu comes as no surprise. Voters let fear guide their decision rather than bet on change. Erdogan understood how to play this card.

Can Dündar, former editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper Cumhuriyet, lives in exile in Berlin. Here he runs the Internet platform “Özgürüz”.

“He systematically spread fear and hatred,” says Dündar. If people had to choose between democracy and security, they would often choose security. This is a global trend that can be observed not only in Turkey, but also in Belarus, Poland and Hungary. It leads to the strengthening of right-wing politics based on nationalism and populism.

Dündar explains that it was not surprising that Erdogan received a large proportion of the votes in the areas that suffered from the earthquakes in February. Shortly before the election, Erdogan promised to build houses. The tendency for people to cling to autocratic rule in severe crises is also a global phenomenon.

Added to this is the special status of religion, which has grown significantly in Turkey over the past two decades. “In the 21 years that he has been in power, Erdogan has produced a new generation of religious people,” explains Dündar. “He destroyed the secular education system and replaced it with a religious one.”

In the 21 years he has been in power, Erdogan has destroyed the secular education system and replaced it with a religious one.

Can Dündar, Turkish journalist in exile

Many people have placed great hopes in the younger generation, says Dündar. “They believed that the 6.6 million young voters voting for the first time would be the tipping point for change. But that doesn’t seem to have been the case.”

Rosa Burca from the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) emphasizes that Kurdish voters voted for change on Sunday. In all important Kurdish voting districts, the opposition challenger was elected with a clear lead. “They made strategic choices,” says the sociologist.

Pink Burca works as a political sociologist at the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM).

Deliberately, no own candidate was sent into the race “so as not to share the votes of the opposition in the presidential election”. Kilicdaroglu was credited with “seeking dialogue with Kurdish representatives in a hyper-nationalist climate” and openly addressing taboo topics such as the situation of the Kurds and Alevis.

In a runoff election, the pressure on Kilicdaroglu will be high to steer an anti-Kurdish and more nationalist course.

Rosa Burca, political sociologist at the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM)

However, Burca is not sure whether Kilicdaroglu can count on the same massive support from the Kurds in a runoff election. He would need the votes of ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan, who came third with 5.3 percent. “In a runoff election, the pressure on Kilicdaroglu will be high to steer towards an anti-Kurdish and more nationalist course,” Burca fears. How the Kurds will vote in two weeks will depend primarily on how Kilicdaroglu deals with this issue.

Sociologist and Turkey expert Friedrich Püttmann explains Sunday’s election result with the “different realities of life” in Turkey. “They range from English-speaking entrepreneurs who fly around the world to men with two wives and little knowledge of Turkish in the villages in the south-east of the country,” says the scientist. If you want to understand Turkey and the election result, you have to keep these two sides in mind.

Friedrich Püttmann works as a Turkey expert and sociologist at the London School of Economics and at Sciences Po Paris.

Erdogan will also benefit from his “charisma” in the run-off election and the art of “finding the right narrative for every crisis”. “However great the suffering of many Turks from the enormous inflation may be, if television says that people in Germany are doing even worse, then the crisis can have nothing to do with the president’s economic policy, which is keen to experiment,” says Püttmann.

When television says that people in Germany are even worse off, then the crisis can have nothing to do with the president’s economic policy, which is keen to experiment.

Friedrich Püttmann, Turkey expert and sociologist at the London School of Economics and at Sciences Po Paris

Erdogan will also benefit in the runoff from the fact that he is still perceived as “the defender of the interests of the common man – economically and culturally”. Sunday’s elections also showed “how much Turkey is still ruled by a one-man system”. That will not change in the next two weeks.

Turkish politics is characterized by “extreme camp thinking”. As a result, even those who have turned their backs on Erdogan are afraid that if the opposition wins they will not be able to get help with reconstruction – “in revenge on them, so to speak”.

The opposition tried to allay these concerns, but apparently without success. “Even now, identity politics trumps everything else,” analyzes Püttmann.