HAVANA – Cuba The island is facing a demographic crisis that goes beyond a simple decline in its population. The combination of a high rate of emigration and a mortality rate that exceeds births is triggering a series of problems that are profoundly transforming the social and economic structure of the island.
From the accelerated ageing of the population to pressures on the health system and pensions, the repercussions are vast and complex. According to a review Marti Newsspecialists have begun to analyze these consequences, warning of the critical challenges that the country must face to ensure its future.
Below, we explore in detail how population decline is impacting Cuba, with insights that highlight the urgency of addressing this crisis in a comprehensive manner:
1. Accelerated aging of the population
One of the most alarming effects of population decline is the accelerated aging of the Cuban population. Elaine Acosta, a sociologist and professor at Florida International University (FIU), points out that “the decrease in the young population and the increase in the elderly present a considerable challenge for the health system, which will have to adapt to a growing demand for geriatric care.”
2. Reduction of the workforce
The emigration of young people and professionals is reducing the workforce in Cuba. Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a professor at the University of Havana, warns that “the flight of talent directly affects the country’s production capacity. Without a sufficient working population, the economy will stagnate.” This decrease in the workforce also limits the capacity for innovation and development in key sectors of the economy.
3. Pressure on the pension system
The Cuban pension system faces an imminent crisis due to population decline. Angel Marcel Rodriguez Pita, a sociologist and economist, points out that “with fewer workers contributing to the system and an increase in pensioners, the sustainability of the system becomes a serious concern. This will force the regime to implement urgent measures to guarantee the economic security of retirees.”
4. Overall economic impact
The decline in population affects domestic demand for goods and services. Rodríguez Pita adds that “fewer inhabitants mean less consumption, which in turn can lead to a contraction of the domestic market and a decrease in income for companies.” In addition, the emigration of qualified professionals limits the capacity for economic growth, making the economy increasingly dependent on a less prepared and less productive labour market.
5. Low birth rate
Cuba’s fertility rate, which ranges between 1.7 and 1.8 children per woman, reflects economic hardship and the lack of basic resources for families. Acosta mentions that “this low birth rate is a long-term concern, as it perpetuates the cycle of decline and aging.” The lack of support for young families and adverse economic conditions discourage births, further contributing to the demographic problem.
7. Accentuated social inequalities
Population decline is exacerbating social inequalities in Cuba. Rodríguez Pita stresses that “the most vulnerable sectors, such as the homeless and those with limited access to resources, are being most affected by the lack of food and medicine.” This not only aggravates the humanitarian crisis, but also poses challenges to social cohesion and the general well-being of the population.
8. Challenges for sustainable development
The combination of a declining population and accelerated ageing presents serious challenges for Cuba’s sustainable development. Albizu-Campos concludes that “public policies will have to adapt quickly to address these demographic problems, promoting an environment that encourages birth and retains talent.” The lack of a clear and effective strategy to address demographic ageing and population reduction could have long-lasting consequences for the country’s socioeconomic development.
Source: With information from Martí News