Interest in the Arctic is growing: Russia is militarizing its Arctic zone, which is causing concerns in Denmark and Canada.Bild: imago images/zabelin
Analyse
Mountains embedded in a blanket of snow and ice, the northern lights sparkling on crystal-clear water, polar bears hunting on ice floes – these are probably images that come to mind when you think of the Arctic. But the region of perpetual ice is changing: global warming is striking.
Images that come to mind are those of the Arctic.Bild: AP / Romas Dabrukas
Shrinking sea ice, thawing permafrost and rising temperatures show that climate change is heating up the Arctic. Experts fear the region could become the next hotspot. After all, valuable mineral resources, strategically important ship passages and, above all, a lot of oil and gas are hidden under the Arctic ice.
Military bases, armored vehicles and armed forces have long adorned the landscape of the Arctic – above all Russia increasingly involved in the region. “Since 2007, the arctic zone of the Russian Federation has been militarized again,” explains security expert Michael Paul when asked by watson.
Russian soldiers hold a military exercise in the Arctic.Bild: imago/ITAR-TASS
Russia is rebuilding military power in the Arctic
In other words, bases will be reactivated or modernized. “In this respect, Russia is definitely better positioned militarily than any other Arctic country,” says Paul, who conducts research at the “German Institute for International Politics and Security.”
The countries bordering the Arctic Ocean include the USA (with Alaska), Russia, Norway, You have and Denmark (with Greenland). Iceland and Sweden are also considered Arctic countries.
Territorial claims harbor potential for conflict
According to Paul, Russian, Danish and Canadian territorial claims clash in the Central Arctic.
“The competing territorial claims in the Arctic Ocean offer potential for conflict,” says Paul. For this purpose, the “Commission for the Delimitation of the Continental Shelf” was founded, an institution of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The Arctic is part of the research area of security expert Michael Paul. image: swp
“Russia already expressed territorial claims in 2001, followed later by Canada and Denmark,” says Paul. That is, this is where the claims to the North Pole overlap. It is about resources and sea routes such as the transpolar passage. “And of course also about the military importance of the Arctic,” emphasizes Paul.
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According to the security expert, Russia has concentrated two-thirds of its maritime nuclear potential in the Arctic zone. That’s all Story explosive. The Danish government is also apparently aware of the delicate situation, which is why it watches every Russian move in the Arctic with eagle eyes.
A village in Greenland. The huge island belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark.Image: IMAGO/imagebroker/alimdi/Arterra
Denmark worried about Russia’s pursuit of power in the Arctic
“In terms of security policy, the recent general intensification of global strategic competition also affects the Arctic,” explained the Danish Foreign Ministry when asked by watson.
It goes on to say:
“In recent years, the Russian Federation has increased its military strength and expanded its military capabilities in the Arctic. Although the war in Ukraine may have weakened Russia militarily in the short term, the current situation also makes Russia a less predictable actor in the Arctic. “
Russian soldiers hold a field exercise on the tundra with reindeer. Bild: imago images/ITAR-TASS
This is a development that Denmark must continuously analyze and evaluate together with its allies. Canada is also emphasizing the growing international interest in the Arctic region. When asked by Watson, a spokesman for Canada’s Foreign Ministry said the country was committed to peaceful development in the Arctic.
It says:
“Despite increased interest in the region from both Arctic and non-Arctic countries, Canada continues to work effectively with international and national partners to ensure the Arctic remains a region of peace and stability.”
Moscow, on the other hand, recently practiced war at the North Pole and flexed its muscles during a large-scale military exercise.
Russian military maneuvers in the Arctic
On April 10th, the Russian Northern Fleet undertook a major maneuver in the waters of the Arctic. 1,800 soldiers and more than a dozen ships are said to have taken part in the exercise, the press service of the fleet told the Interfax news agency. “Particular attention will be paid to the safety of Russia’s merchant marine and sea routes, such as the Northeast Passage, during the maneuver,” the statement said.
The Russian army repeatedly holds military exercises in the Arctic. Bild: imago images/SNA / Pavel Lvov
The Northeast Passage runs along the north coast of Russia. Because of the increasing global warming, the route is becoming more and more important for shipping traffic, because in the meantime it is even passable in summer without an icebreaker – and of great importance for Russia.
Putin’s ambitions in the land of melting ice
Russia uses the Northeast Passage to export raw materials that the far north country mines. “The Arctic is Russia’s national resource base,” explains Paul. That’s what Vladimir Putin called it.
The Arctic is hugely important to Russia, and Vladimir Putin knows it. Image: Pool Sputnik Kremlin / Alexei Nikolsky
Then: Arctic energy resources are the central pillar for Russia, according to Paul Business in the next ten years. The Arctic is therefore immensely important for Russia to retain and secure its role as a great power.
In order to assert its claim to the polar region, Moscow established units specializing in combat in the Arctic more than a decade ago. Last summer, NATO reacted to this development and announced that it would be more involved in the North Pole region in the future.
A US soldier at a military exercise in Alaska, USA.Credit: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire / U.S. Air Force
But are NATO and the US military even fit for a war in the cold latitudes? Probably less, says Paul: “The former head of the US Coast Guard once said that it gets pretty dark beyond the 72nd parallel.”
A lack of satellite reconnaissance in the Arctic is causing resentment
Among other things, according to Paul, the reconnaissance capability for the Arctic region is inadequate. He says:
“The US Coast Guard, for example, was not exactly pleased when they noticed maneuvers by Chinese and Russian warships in the Arctic last September – they were taken by surprise. If you don’t have a good satellite reconnaissance for the Arctic, you can by events just get run over.”
Now the US and other Arctic countries like Norway want to improve their reconnaissance capabilities, says Paul. The Danes have also purchased long-range drones for Greenland. But how great is the danger of a possible war in the Arctic really at the moment?
War in Ukraine increases possibilities of military escalation
“There is no danger of war in the Arctic in the same way as in the Pacific around Taiwan,” says Paul. According to him, the troop presence of the Russian Northern Fleet has decreased. Reason: The Russian war of aggression against the Ukraine leads to high losses of human life and material.
“As a result, Russia would hardly be able to carry out or endure military conflicts in the Arctic at the moment,” says the expert. However, the Russian air force and navy as well as nuclear weapons are not affected by the war of aggression against Ukraine.
The Russian nuclear submarine Tula in arctic waters.Bild: IMAGO/UPI Photo / Russian Defense Ministry Press Office
Paul emphasizes: The Arctic is a vulnerable flank for Russia, where it has “legitimate defense interests”. According to him, Russian aggression could be aimed at Spitsbergen, for example – NATO’s Achilles’ heel. “Russia could carry out an invasion there, similar to Crimea,” predicts Paul.
The potential for conflict in the Arctic is low, but the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine also increases the possibility of a military escalation, explains the expert.
(With material from the dpa)
