Facing a new week that begins, these are the key variables of the Argentine economy that must be taken into account
By Christian A. Buteler
24/04/2023 – 07,50hs
From “The keys of the week“We will try to bring the data to take into account in the week that begins, in a few lines and in a concrete way, the main variables that affect the investor. What the market observes and expects for the next 5 days.
1 dollar
- BANK NATION $225 +1.59% weekly
- BLUE $442 +10.50% weekly
- MEP $435.92 +11.31% weekly
- CCL $454.87 +13.19% weekly
Gap with the official dollar
- BLUE 96%
- MEP 94%
- CCL 102%
Rumors throughout the week that a weak government tends to have a greater impact led to a sharp jump in prices. alternative dollars. The constant issuance of pesos to which the soybean III dollar was added is the main cause of the experience in exchange matters. Until now, the government has had no reaction, the dollar may stabilize and even drop somewhat, but it will be by the market’s own decision and not in response to measures taken by the government.
2- Rates
- Traditional fixed term 6.75% TEM
- Fixed term UVA: 7.7% for the current month, 7% and 6.3% estimated for the following months according to the latest REM (Survey of market expectations)
- US 10-year rate 3.57% +5bps
The BCRA raised the rate in 300 basis points Taking the fixed term rate to 6.75% per month, it is a rate that is below past inflation and also what is expected. The effectiveness of the rate rise to control inflation is nil if on the other hand they continue issuing money, now the soybean III dollar is added.
With this rate level against inflation, the preferential rate continues to be fixed term grape.
3- Actions
- Merval 290,890.52 +5.50% weekly
- Merval in u$s 639.17 -6.14% weekly
- The S&P 500 is up 4,133.52 -0.10% for the week
Local market: The rise in the merval in pesos corresponds more to the fall of the local currency than to a rise in Argentine assets. In fact, the shares listed on Wall Street ended in red, as did the merval measured in dollars. For the week that begins, if the value of the dollar is not sustained, we could see a drop in the local stock market and this time not only in dollars.
American market: The American market took a break from the rebound. During the week the balance sheets will continue to arrive and hand in hand with them the market will decide whether to resume the rebound or run out of steam.
4- Bonuses
- Country risk 2,622 +212 bp
Dollar bonds: Another week of losses, there are no drivers to boost local bonds and everything suggests that we are going back to the area of flats. The lack of dollars due to the drought, high inflation and local uncertainty will mark the rest of the year. In bonds there is no electoral trade.
Bonds in pesos: Bonds and bills that adjust for inflation are the market’s favorites, the rest adjusting rates that rose a new notch. But there is no selling trend in these titles. The government managed to pass a new debt placement satisfactorily. For the week that begins, and if the exchange rate instability continues, the demand for the dual bonds could increase.
5 – Dollars vs Pesos
Following the average between stock of pesos and the value of the CCL since the return of the stocks, to April 18, the latter should be at $465.25. If we take the same variables but within the last 6 months, the value is $413.14.
