The electoral results in the provinces will continue during this “super May” and June will also have a series of decisive votes
By Gustavo Marangoni
08/05/2023 – 19,45hs
Las provincesIn its great majority, they separated their choices of the national calendar. Precisely for this reason it is a paradox to want to read the results of the provincial elections in a national key. So simple and easy.
Of course, interested interpretations are inevitable. But they constitute partisan artifacts and not analyzes with valid perspectives.
Regarding the figure of Javier Miley something similar happens. Those who choose the libertarian leader for the nationals do so exclusively for that segment. The performance of Libertad Avanza in the calendar prior to the PASO does not contribute much to anticipate how “the Wig” will do well or badly in August and October.
What this electoral geography does serve is to remind us that in our Argentina the whole is less than the sum of its parts, at least as far as politics is concerned. At the district level, the officialisms usually revalidate their titles. Until now, this has happened with the sole and debatable exception of the Neuquén Popular Movement, where the winner was precisely a fraction of that hegemonic force. Let us remember that at the headquarters of Vaca Muerta, the elected governor was deputy governor of the current president.
He super may continues next Sunday (La Pampa, San Juan, Salta, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego), followed by a super june (Corrientes, Mendoza, San Luis, Córdoba and Formosa). But it is very likely that the surprises will be few and the continuities many.
“The performance of Libertad Avanza in the calendar prior to the PASO does not contribute much to anticipate how Milei will do in August and October”
Provincial elections do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn about national ones.
Nation and provinces: the coming arm wrestling
Even assuming that some change can take place, what is worth noting is that on December 10, when the president-elect puts on his band, he will do so before the scrutinizing gaze of a majority of provincial rulers who are well established in the management of their districts. and attentive to the intentions that the new occupant of the Rivadavia chair has towards them.
Within the framework of an economy that will have to solve a mountain of difficulties, discretionary transfers from the Executive Power to the provinces will be among them as a central part of the fiscal discussion.. Everything seems to indicate that bartering resources for governance will be a less likely tactic than on other occasions. The emergencies of the Nation (debt, retirements, assistance to the poor) take almost the entire budget. The rigidity in the matter is great and when it comes to sacrificing resources it is to be expected that nobody wants to be the first to take a step forward.
Declare against “unitarianism“In our country it is a classic. But it is not necessarily a fact of reality. Many of those who present themselves as champions of federalism have contributed to a substantial increase in the payroll of public employees during the last decade of stagflation (municipalities included) in good measure thanks to a collection structure and expenses that allow it.
Buenos Aires, focus of criticism
Few practices are as profitable as hold “Buenos Aires” responsible for the difficulties while the ability to increase the weight of wages in local administrations is exercised lavishly. Of course there are exceptions in this matter, but they are precisely that, exceptions.
Otherwise, the increase of one million new civil servants in the last fifteen years would have no logical explanation. We are then faced with a structural issue in the face of which the power of Balcarce 50, whatever the tenant, is very limited. Part of this anemia is explained by the 1994 constitutional reform that establishes in a transitory clause (which has become permanent) to modify the federal co-participation regime requires an “agreement law”, that is, a norm that is approved by the National Congress and for the twenty-four legislatures.
Milei’s candidacy: the provincial results cannot yet be taken as indications of his performance in August.
The famous constitutional provision establishes that in regards to parliamentary procedure, the Chamber of origin must be the Senate of the Nation and must be sanctioned with the absolute majority of all the members of each Chamber, and cannot be modified unilaterally or regulated. must be validated by the provinces. If this is not to have “hands tied“It looks quite similar. Modifying the National Constitution is easier than changing the tax co-participation regime. Taking into account the pressing fiscal situation of our country, this true independent variable is a substantial part of the problem.
Will the next presidential elections give birth to a leadership capable of dealing with cunning and skill to address the management of this issue? The answer to this question depends, to a large extent, on the future possibilities of heading towards stability and economic development in the near future.
