The blue dollar climbs strong again this Tuesday and is out of control. In the city of Buenos Aires, the informal US currency is trading at $497, that is, $35 more than yesterday’s close, which had reached $465 but ended up selling at $462. Thus, in just two days it adds an increase of $55, and once again breaks a historical record.
In this context, concern is growing over the crisis the country is going through, where the Government continues to “play” the inmates in the midst of a worsening economic and social situation. Meanwhile, after the official silence, the one who came out to speak was President Alberto Fernández himself, who ratified Miguel Pesce at the Central Bank and blamed the “Argentine right” for the rise of the informal dollar (see: https://www.eldia.com/nota/2023-4-25-12-38-0-el-presidente-ratifico-a-pesce-en-el-bcra-y-por-la-suba-del-paralelo-culpa-a-la-derecha-argentina–politica-y-economia).
Thus, the blue confirms the unbridled upward trend of last week, when in five days it accumulated an increase of $42 that took it from the $400 in which it opened on Monday to the $442 in which it closed on Friday, in rounds in which there were of everything, because it began with a strong rumor that Sergio Massa would not continue as head of the Ministry of Economy and hand in hand with his departure there was a plan that included a strong devaluation. The one who ended up leaving was the head of advisers to the president, Antonio Aracre, marked as the one who had “operated” against the head of the Palace of Finance.
That meant that almost the entire week, in addition to having climbed close to 10%, each day was charged with tension. And the corollary was the announcement made last Friday by President Alberto Fernández not to seek re-election: the market took note and that same day it rose 14 pesos to close at $442.
Meanwhile, the dollar was trading this afternoon at $218 for purchase and $226 for sale at Banco Nación, while in the stock market the dollar with settlement (CCL) rose 3.1% and traded at $476 .85. For its part, the MEP or Stock Market dollar rose 2.8% and traded at $461.72. Meanwhile, the Argentine country risk was located at 2,646 basis points, according to the index prepared by JP Morgan.
The escalation of the alternative exchange rates to the official one continues to climb very high and the experts explain the phenomenon by the shortage of dollars for which no short-term solution is in sight and an inflation of more than 100 percent per year that accelerates due to the uncertainty in a presidential election year.
In the informal market, the price of the so-called “blue dollar” does not stop rising and continues to break records, an indicator that the population is very attentive to, despite the fact that it is considered a “small” market. At the same time, the so-called financial dollars accompanied the rise, raising the gap with the official price, which largely exceeds 100%.
In the official foreign exchange market, yesterday the Central Bank accelerated depreciation, since the price of the US dollar for sale to the public rose one peso at the state-owned Banco Nación, up to 218 pesos for purchases and 226 pesos, while in the wholesale plaza rose 1.68 pesos to 220.21 pesos per unit for sale.
It is key to highlight that in addition to the deficit and the emission, two chronic problems that Argentina has, now the drought is added, which has wreaked havoc in a large part of the country. Unfortunately, this climatic phenomenon reveals the enormous relevance that the countryside has for the Argentine economy. It was enough that this serious problem occurred in a magnitude never seen in more than 60 years, for the country to “remain lame” in the face of the notorious lower amount of foreign currency that has been entering through the commercialization of agriculture. Without further ado, the countryside falls and “the country falls”, economically speaking.
Meanwhile, yesterday at the close of the market, the president of the monetary entity, Miguel Ángel Pesce, a man related to the head of state, Alberto Fernández, and not to the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, was summoned to the Casa Rosada, but they did not transcend details of the meeting, although some sources claimed that the President ratified his confidence. Finally this morning he came out to back it up.
In this context, reserves are scarce and this year the country suffers a historic drought that reduces its agricultural exports by some 20,000 million dollars, generating a lack of foreign currency that is difficult to cover. In parallel, there is a surplus of national currency because the Central Bank issues to finance the fiscal deficit before a population that does not demand pesos to the same extent.
