Heating cheaper again: heating oil prices on low flight: expert makes daring prognosis

Energy prices kept many consumers very busy in 2022 – and there are only signs of a slight relaxation in the short term for 2023. The war in Ukraine and the energy and price crises it triggered are still two dominant issues and strongly linked to the development linked to energy prices. In particular, fuels such as gas or heating oil had risen significantly in price in 2022. Politicians reacted, among other things, with an electricity and gas price brake.

Heating oil prices have been trending downwards since October: this is how much a liter currently costs

There is also a state subsidy for consumers with heating oil or pellet heating who bought pellets or heating oil in Germany between 1 January and 1 December. Anyone who orders at the end of December or only now is no longer entitled to the discharge. Also because the prices for the two fuels had fallen at the end of 2022. A trend that continues to this day. As of January 2, 2023, a liter of heating oil in Germany costs between 1.23 and 1.27 euros.

The development of heating oil prices from August 2022 to today:

For comparison: on October 15, 2022 consumer paid an average of 1.68 euros for a liter of heating oil – a difference of more than 40 cents per liter if you take the 1.27 euros as a basis. Oliver Klapschus – Managing Director of the comparison portal “HeizOel24” – in conversation with our editors assumes that the price level will continue to fall in 2023. Decisive for this are the factors that determine the price of heating oil – these are:

Heating oil prices have fallen since October: these factors determine prices

Like almost all goods, the development of heating oil prices in Germany is strongly linked to demand. In contrast to autumn 2022, the tank in many households is full. The price also adjusts accordingly. Another favorable factor is the price of crude oil – according to Klapschuss, this accounts for around 60 percent of the total price of heating oil. A barrel of oil currently costs around 80 cents, which is significantly less than in 2022.

The crude oil price, in turn, is itself determined by various factors such as supply and demand or political developments. If demand for oil increases again in China, for example, this could also make prices in Europe more expensive. Decisions such as the EU price cap on Russian oil also play a role in pricing. In this respect, it is difficult to make forecasts when it comes to prices – for crude oil and therefore also for heating oil.

Heating oil prices for consumers: This is how the price per liter is made up:

Gas prices & weather influence the price of heating oil: Expert gives forecast for 2023

Another factor – which is currently having a favorable effect on heating oil prices – is the price of gas. According to reports from “BR24”, primarily large industrial companies can often choose between different energy carriers Select. For example, when the gas price rose massively at the beginning of the energy crisis, many companies switched to oil. A trend that is reversed in times of falling gas prices – and has a positive effect on consumer prices for heating oil.

The weather also plays a role in the formation of heating oil prices. If it is cold for a longer period of time, stocks will run out more quickly and, as a result, you will have to reorder earlier. This is one of the reasons why Klapschus’ assessment of the development of heating oil prices from 2023 is also based on the assumption that there will not be another major cold snap. In the conversation, Klapschus mentions a heating oil price of 1.10 per liter from 2023 as a guide. “But that’s all speculative.”

Tax and CO2 levy as factors in the price of heating oil: the state also earns

This means that the question of whether to buy heating oil now or whether it is better to wait cannot be answered unequivocally. Those who still have supplies can continue to monitor the development of heating oil prices. If you only have a little left in the tank, you can currently benefit from liter prices below the mark of 1.30 euros per liter. Although go Experts | We assume that heating oil prices will tend to fall in the first half of the year, but due to the large number of factors, such forecasts should always be treated with caution.

In addition to the variable price factors for heating oil, taxes and the CO₂ tax must also be taken into account. In contrast to the price of crude oil and the situation on the world market, taxes and CO₂ levies are fixed costs that heating oil price are included. “Taxes and CO₂ tax make up around 30 percent of the price,” says Klapschuss. Logistics and retailer costs would add up to around ten percent pricing flow in.

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