Moscow students are practicing for their performance on May 9th. Ukrainian drone constructors could spoil the propaganda appearance of the despot Vladimir Putin.Image: AP / Alexander Zemlianichenko
Analyse
A Ukrainian businessman has offered prize money for drones disrupting the military parade in Moscow on May 9. The nervousness in the Kremlin is not just because of the unusual competition.
Daniel Schurter / watson.ch
Shortly before the military parades on May 9, Moscow was gripped by an “unprecedented nervousness”, reported the “Guardian“-Reporter Pjotr Sauer on Sunday.
In fact, Vladimir Putin and his followers have every reason to be nervous: Ukrainian drone designers want to severely disrupt the Russian despot’s most important propaganda appearance on Tuesday.
A Ukrainian businessman offered prize money equivalent to around 500,000 euros. Or should one rather speak of a “bounty”?
Soldiers demonstrate their skills during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade, May 9.Bild: AP / Dmitri Lovetsky
What does this have to do with last week’s drone flights?
When Putin takes the stage in Moscow’s Red Square on Tuesday to celebrate the historic victory over Nazi Germany, Ukrainian drone makers want to convey a different message to the Russians: the message of their homeland’s unbroken will to defend itself.
The News Magazine “The mirror” published an explosive interview with the Ukrainian businessman Volodymyr Yatsenko last Saturday.
In it, the enterprising entrepreneur explains, the alleged drone attacks from last week it was only a test flight.
“The purpose of this flight was to slap Putin in the face and demonstrate the complete impotence and worthlessness of his anti-aircraft system. The aircraft that was used is of very simple design, but it has a very modern engine, allowing it to run continuously for 20 hours can fly. And of course the drone came with some pretty advanced software that probably very few countries have today.”
Volodymyr Jazenkothose: spiegel.de
Yatsenko, who has drones developed himself, launched a special competition in his home country at the beginning of April: Anyone who manages to reach Red Square in Moscow with a drone on May 9 will receive prize money equivalent to around 500,000 euros.
The competition announcement on Ukrainian TV in early April:
The declared goal is to “encourage and urge Ukrainian tech manufacturers to build more drones with a longer range” and improve their technical characteristics, as Yatsenko confirmed to “Spiegel”.
The launch over the Kremlin:
“The explosion seen on video footage was the result of a shot at the fuel tank, which I understand was fired by the two security guards on duty atop the dome.”
those: spiegel.de
He knows very well who sent the drones, but doesn’t want to reveal this information “in view of the upcoming parade on Red Square, which has not yet been canceled,” says Yatsenko. And emphasizes: The small aircraft would definitely not have carried any explosives.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that future drones will fly to Moscow without explosives…
What are Ukrainians planning for May 9?
This is unknown.
If one believes the statements made by the Ukrainian businessman, no attack on Putin or the parade participants is planned for May 9. Or is it?
It’s probably about a PR coup in which the weakness of Russian airspace security is demonstrated to the whole world and the army leadership is made a laughingstock of.
It is also unclear whether the Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy knows about the plans of the contestants. Because such a project is risky and could trigger massive retaliatory measures.
We know from leaked US intelligence documents that the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service was planning attacks on the Russian capital on February 24. However, this was allegedly prevented by the US government.
How could drones trick Russian air defenses?
Yatsenko, a trained engineer and pilot who became rich as a co-founder of the Ukrainian online bank Monobank, says he has been building drones since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Since the invasion of 2022, he has financed his own development team and is having a reconnaissance and combat drone built, which he is making available to the Ukrainian army.
A Ukrainian propaganda video published on YouTube shows the launch of such a “Dowbusch T10” reconnaissance drone from a moving pick-up truck.
At the end of December 2022, it was said that series production of the new reconnaissance drones had begun and that a variant for kamikaze missions was also being examined.
The advanced equipment and software make the Dowbusch drone practically “invulnerable” – She can allegedly outsmart the Russian air defense and electronic warfare could not harm her.
As is well known, Russia is defending itself against the drones by interfering with the satellite navigation system and deploying weapon systems everywhere that can shoot down the drones. But that is not really effective, because Ukrainian specialists have developed an alternative to GPS navigation.
As far as the exact functionality is concerned, Yatsenko understandably does not let himself be looked at in the cards. He told Der Spiegel that the Russians could disrupt satellite communications, but not the signal from a video camera. The drone software processes the images from the camera and enables the aircraft to navigate in space.
And he confirmed to the “Spiegel” journalist that the Kremlin could not protect itself completely from such drone approaches.
“The Russian systems can of course shoot down one or two drones, but they are absolutely powerless when a swarm of 20, 30 or even 40 drones approaches. These systems are designed to repel large aircraft and they have a limited number of them Missiles that they can launch. That is objective reality and it is very painful for the Putin regime to recognize that.”
those: spiegel.de
What is the weather forecast for Moscow (on May 9th)?
According to the weather forecast, it will be cloudy and partly sunny in the Russian capital on Tuesday, with a mild 14 degrees Celsius. According to meteorologists, stronger winds are not to be expected. And there shall be no precipitation. At least not natural ones, like rain, hail or snow.
One could speak of perfect flying weather.
Does Putin dare to make a public appearance?
A waiver would be a serious defeat. However, it is questionable how and where Putin will show himself.
“There’s a nervousness I’ve never seen before,” the Guardian quoted an official in the Moscow mayor’s office as saying. But the day of (Soviet) victory had to happen, there was no other option.
The authorities have banned the use of drones and started jamming GPS signals. And the police were “hastily handed out binoculars” to spot incoming unmanned aerial vehicles.
Significantly, last Friday Putin took the unusual step of discussing preparations for the May 9 Victory Day Parade at a meeting with his Security Council. This body is made up of Russia’s top state officials and heads of defense and security agencies.
How important is May 9th for Putin?
Very important. For propaganda purposes.
On May 9, Russia traditionally celebrates the end of the “Great Patriotic War”, the victory over Nazi Germany. In the 23 years of his tenure, this day of remembrance gradually “developed into the centerpiece of Vladimir Putin’s vision of Russian identity,” according to the Guardian.
Andrei Kolesnikov, a researcher at the Moscow-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it was by far the most important event of the year for Putin.
Putin derives all his legitimacy from the parade and describes himself as the direct successor to the army that defeated Nazi Germany. In view of this importance for the Kremlin, the parade must take place.
“This is also Putin’s chance to show the nation that he is still strong and that he has the so-called special military operation in Ukraine under control.”
Putin at one of his rare public appearances.Bild: IMAGO/ITAR-TASS / Sergei Bobylev
What is the catch?
The parades planned in several Russian cities could also show how the war of aggression against Ukraine harmed the Russian army. As is well known, there have been massive losses since the invasion in February 2022.
Rehearsal for the military parade on Victory Day 2022.Bild: IMAGO/ITAR-TASS
The Guardian quotes Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at Rand Corporation:
“Most military parades will only have conscripts marching because all the contract soldiers are in Ukraine. With so many ground forces deployed in Ukraine, some regions will be forced to get creative and let military trainers and other personnel play a more prominent role in promoting the.” to give some semblance of normality.”
It should be noted that the Rand Corporation is a think tank formed after the end of World War II to advise the United States Armed Forces.
What has the Kremlin already canceled?
Those responsible in the Kremlin have already canceled one of the most well-known events of May 9th: the March of the Immortal Regiment – a procession of people with portraits of their WWII veterans.
According to political researcher Massicot, Russian authorities may fear that the procession could end up highlighting the actual number of Russian casualties in Ukraine. Namely when relatives carry the portraits of the soldiers killed in the current war.
According to the Guardian, at least six Russian regions canceled the May 9 celebrations altogether.
