The savers who bet in 2022 on invest in stocks and bonds end the year with pure celebrationbecause some papers came to scale in 12 months up to 350%a figure that far exceeds the rest of the instruments in pesos and dollars offered by the market, such as fixed terms, properties, gold and the purchase of the US bill.
The conclusive figure of this is provided by the Mervalwhich is the main index of shares of leading companies in Buenos Aires, which showed a rise throughout the year close to 138%a figure that in dollars represents 40%.
As for the Specific papers that rose the most in all of 2022, stood out energy companies, such as Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS), which climbed 349%. Behind were YPF (303%), Transportadora de Gas del Norte (TGN) (284%) and Transener, which rose 242%.
When analyzing how it fared for the Argentine companies listed in the United Statesthroughout the year that has already ended, the ADRs of YPF, which climbed 140% in dollars. They followed TGS (85%) and Tenariswith an advance of 67% on Wall Street.
On the side of the public titles that are listed in the domestic market, In all of 2022, Treasury bonds in pesos adjusted for CER (inflation) plus 1.5%, maturing in March 2024 (TX24), which rose 72%, and Boncers that expire in 2026 (TX26) led the rises. that advanced 55%. The dollar-denominated bond was also located, with Argentine law, nominated for 2038 (AE38), which increased 59% throughout the year.
In short, a large part of the shares exceeded the increase in the price of the dollarwhat happened with about 70% according to its origin. While inflation for all of 2022 was around 97%.
In fact, throughout December the Merval climbed 20% and it became the most winning option in the last month of the year.
The shares of leading companies rose up to 349% in all of 2022, as was the case with Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS).
Stocks and bonds, big winners of 2022
According to the experts consulted by iProfesional, the causes that explain the prominence of the stocks and bonds throughout 2022 they have different origins.
“It was a year that was divided into two stages, one before Massa and the other after Massa took office. It was when that concept of the red circle and the White House really came to fruition. In a few months the Minister of Economy achieved what Guzmán it could not in two and a half years, and this impacted everything that was variable income, especially services. We had a boom in the oil sector Due to this official’s roadshow in Texas, we had it throughout the service cluster with a tariff adjustment scheme that began in October. And this had an impact on the entire square,” he says. Mauro Mazzaportfolio manager of Bull Market, to iProfessional.
by the side of Paul RepettoHead of Research at Aurum, also states that: “It was a good year for Argentine stocks, which have had a very good performance measured in free dollars, although with quite different behavior in what was a bad first semester and a very good second semester. The behavior of Argentine bonds was similar in terms of deterioration and recovery periods, but on a poorer magnitude“.
Finally, Gonzalo GavinaPPi’s financial adviser, indicates to iProfessional that the Market counterparty were shares linked to the financial sector (the banks), owed lagged behind inflation. For example, Supervielle up 82%, Macro Bank won 85% and Galician Group added 59%.
“For her part, the sovereign debt in dollars had a very weak yearwhere the annualized returns of the Global 2030 (GD30) were -18% in dollars and those of the 2030 bond (AL30) were -21% in dollars, reflecting a poor performance that can be extended to the rest of the dollar-denominated instruments of the curve,” Gaviña states.
In turn, complete that the cedearsbeyond that they follow the dollar counted with liquidation, “they also had mixed performances, pulling negative”.
Argentine shares performed very well in Buenos Aires and New York. Forecasts for 2023 are selective.
What is expected for 2023 in stocks and bonds
About what is expected for the next monthsthe analysts consulted by iProfesional place their bets.
“After March, positioning in Argentina may be an opportunity, but especially in sovereign bonds,” details Mazza.
In this sense, on the stock side, he warns that the service sector “adjusted strongly”, so it could “take a break, but Pampa and Central Puerto are our favorites. The first because it will sell 40% of the volume of the Néstor Kirchner and Central Puerto gas pipeline because it is preparing to set up a holding company.”
Thus, Mazza concludes that it is difficult to put together the prospects for the year with “so many challenges ahead, but the key will of course be politics. The market will learn from Macri and will want to see to pay, it will no longer be enough to play a plenary session in politics, now they will want to know the results. They paid to see Massa, but on a par with the measures he took.”
For Repetto, “in 2023 we are positive that the recovery of hard dollar bonds will continue, with a focus on sovereigns and sub-sovereigns that are furthest behind. We believe that the shares linked to Dead cowbut we are not very positive regarding bonds in pesos, especially due to the volume of maturities that would accumulate as they are renewed in the short term, as seen now.”
Finally, Gaviña considers that In equities, it maintains its preference for the energy sector, with YPF, Oil Vista, Pampa Energía and TGS leading the way.
“They all have a strong bond with Vaca Muerta, Therefore, any news, development or advance will bring a smile to investors. Thus, we highlight Pampa Energía in gas, YPF in renewable energy, for its broad portfolio and diversification in the sector, Oil Vista for its operational efficiency in Vaca Muerta, and TGS for its link with the gas that we can extract from Vaca Muerta. “, sums up the PPi analyst.
And he ends: “Always, speaking of an aggressive investor. In turn, the Company valuations remain low, demonstrating upside potential as long as Argentina finds a political and economic direction.”.-
