In December, during the grand dinner given at the White House in honor of Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron, the first-lady Jill Biden explains to her guests that working out helps her clean her head, especially when she is on the campaign trail. The French president immediately took the opportunity to ask her if she was ready to return for 2024. “Absolutely”, she then replied, according to the New York Times. Emmanuel Macron raises his glass and wishes good luck to the presidential couple.
Nothing has been announced and Joe Biden repeats that he has not made a final decision. But the all-Washington is confident he’ll run again. After all, few Oval office tenants give up a second term. The last to date was Lyndon Johnson, in 1968. Yet until recently, given his declining popularity and galloping inflation, many considered him good for retirement. Democrats’ better-than-expected results in the midterm elections have shut down critics. And Joe Biden can boast of an enviable economic situation: growth remains stable, inflation is falling and unemployment has never been so low. As a result, the Party resigned itself to rallying behind him. “Are you with me?”, launched the president in Philadelphia last month, during a congress of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which brought together the establishment of the Party. “Four more years!”, sang the crowd while waving signs “Go Joe” (go ahead Joe).
“Joe Biden has suffered many times from being underestimated during his career and certainly during his presidency”, writes journalist Chris Whipple who has just published The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden’s White House (The fight of his life: behind the scenes of Joe Biden’s White House). He succeeded Trump in a country in chaos, with an insurrection on Capitol Hill, a pandemic and an economic crisis. During his annual State of the Union address on February 7, the President recalled his successes. He has put in place a huge recovery plan, mobilized Europe and NATO to defend Ukraine, succeeded in having a historic investment voted in clean energies and a major infrastructure program to renovate bridges and roads. He encouraged the manufacture of semiconductors in the United States, attacked pharmaceutical companies to lower the price of drugs and is even responsible for a modest law on firearms which imposes stricter controls on young buyers.
Of course, there was the calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the failure of police reform or the introduction of family allowances. Above all, he failed to calm the divisions and bring the country together, as promised. “But his record is remarkably positive, given his very small majority, says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University. He has garnered the greatest legislative successes we have seen in forty years. “
Voters are less enthusiastic. According to a recent poll, 62% of Democrats do not want a Biden bis in the White House in 2024. Now 80 years old, which makes him the oldest president in history, he will have over 86 at the end of a possible second term. “He’s old, he looks like a retiree on the Delaware beach, continues Jeffrey Engel. However, the presidential function is based on the image.” Even if his advisers praise his indefatigable energy, all the botox in the world cannot hide the fact that his step is unsteady, that he stammers more and more or that he happens to confuse “Iranian” and “Ukrainian”. At a recent conference, he asked an elected official to stand up. Only problem: she had recently died! Fox News, the right-wing channel, which caricatures him as a senile grandpa, faithfully keeps track of his blunders. In January, it recorded an average of one every two days.
The question of his age is “legitimate”, admits Joe Biden. But it exasperates him that the subject is omnipresent. “You think I don’t know I’m damn old?” he got angry. To skeptics, he retorts “watch me” at work. That does little to reassure voters aware of the monumental task of running a country the size of America. “Frankly, I think his candidacy is a real risk,” remarked on CNN David Gergen, former adviser to four presidents, enumerating the physical and cognitive “vulnerabilities” with which octogenarians are afflicted. Anti-Biden voices, however, remain muted. At the DNC meeting, the only sign of opposition was a sign posted at the entrance by DontRunJoe (Don’t run, Joe), a small left-wing group calling on him to step aside.
But to whom? “The Democrats have no choice, there is no credible alternative in their ranks,” said political consultant Hank Sheinkopf. Not to mention that it is almost impossible to unbolt an outgoing president. Despite much speculation, J.-B. Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, and Gavin Newsom, that of California have, it seems, abandoned the idea of a candidacy.
Democrats are worried. Biden was lucky in 2020. Due to Covid, he was able to campaign in slippers from home by limiting his travels. But this time, he will not escape the grueling rhythm of incessant electoral rallies. The Democrats have only one wish: that his opponent be Donald Trump, his junior by four years. If the Republican candidate is Ron DeSantis, the 44-year-old Governor of Florida, the contrast is likely to be devastating.
As for his chances of victory, it is far too early to assess them. Between now and the ballot, in twenty months, the administration is not immune to an economic recession, a crisis with China or an indictment by Donald Trump which would inflame the conservatives. Without forgetting the multiple investigations launched by the Republican camp, in particular on his son Hunter and the classified documents. Top secret papers from his time as vice president and senator have been discovered at Joe Biden’s home in recent months. Which is not the best effect at a time when the Democrats are suing Donald Trump for similar facts. Notable difference, the number of documents seized from Biden appears to be much smaller than from his predecessor and he is cooperating with the authorities. His advisers minimize the affair and are convinced that it will have no impact on his re-election. “But you never know where these investigations lead,” observes Hank Sheinkopf. That carried out by the Republicans on Hillary Clinton following the terrorist attack against the American consulate in Libya showed the Secretary of State as weak and incompetent.” And probably contributed to her defeat in the presidential election in 2016.
When will he announce his candidacy? “In due time, Biden responds. Ultimately, it’s a family decision.” The decisive voice is that of Jill, his wife, recently operated on for skin cancer. In the meantime, the president is preparing. He pushed for the modification of the calendar of the primaries to make vote in first of the States which are acquired to him like South Carolina. A way to ward off potential rivals. He also refines his message. He wants to “finish the job” in progress and presents himself as an experienced statesman unlike the extremist Republicans. Already, he criss-crosses the key states to praise his reforms. There is education to be done: according to a survey, 62% of Americans think that he has “not accomplished much”.
