HAVANA.- The population of Cuba is less than 10 million people and continues to decline, according to an expert from the National Statistics and Information Office (ONEI).
According to data provided to Parliament by Deputy Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, deputy head of ONEI, and cited by Cubadebate, “as of December 31, 2023, the effective Cuban population was 10,055,968 people.”
Taking into account “the demographic dynamics (…) in the first months of 2024, the contraction in the number of births and the continued movement of people abroad since the last months of 2023, the current population of Cuba is less than 10 million inhabitants and must continue to decrease,” Cubadebate reported.
“In the last three years, the mobility of the Cuban population abroad has intensified,” says the newspaper, but “this is not reflected in the calculation of the resident population, according to the current methodology.”
From now on, “an emigrant is one who has not spent 180 days or more in the national territory in one year,” he added.
Until now, any Cuban who had lived abroad for more than two years was considered a migrant.
Migratory wave
Besides, Cubawhich is going through a deep economic crisis, has been experiencing a decline since 2021 emigration wave unprecedented since the Castro revolution of 1959.
More than 580,000 Cubans entered the United States illegally between January 2022 and May 2024according to US authorities, and more than 100,000 have benefited from a temporary passage permit assigned since the beginning of 2023.
Added to this is the migration of Cubans to other countries in Latin America and Europe, for which there are no official global figures.
However, figures provided by the Cuban Interior Ministry during a parliamentary session last week, indicate that there are more than three million Cubans abroad.
Furthermore, according to official figures, The birth rate fell by 19% in the country between January and early Julycompared to the same period last year.
Low birth rate
The exodus of Cubans worsens the demographic crisis. The Ministry of Public Health recently reported that there were almost 8,000 fewer births in the first half of 2024 than in the first six months of 2023, when 90,300 births were recorded, the lowest figure since 1959.
The UN has just estimated in its study on “World Population Prospects” that Cuba’s population will not reach six million inhabitants in 2100.
Emigration is increasing and women no longer want to have children. World Bank statistics show that today in Cuba the birth rate is 1.45 children per fertile woman. It is by far the lowest in Latin America, where the average is 2 children per woman. For example, in Argentina it is 2.3 children, in Guatemala (3.0), Peru (2.4), Honduras (2.5), Ecuador (2.5).
The situation is very critical if one takes into account that the massive emigration is of citizens of working age and that the low birth rate reduces the total population and the aging population, reported Diario de Cuba.
That is to say, in Cuba there is less and less labor force, less people producing food and everything else necessary in a country. And the State, already in financial bankruptcy, has less and less resources to support retirees, cover the costs of social security, public health, education, culture, sports, etc.
On Friday, Cuba’s parliament adopted a migration law that updates the concept of “effective residence” and provides that Cubans living abroad for more than two years will lose their property on the island.
Source: With information from AP / Diario de Cuba
