Over the past three years, the global economy has been put to the test. First, in 2020 and 2021, there was the covid-19 pandemic, with the set of restrictions it has generated. Subsequently, in February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict which upset the economic balance of the world.
As a result of these two major crises, countries have experienced varying fortunes: some have paid a high price, others have succeeded in limiting the damage, or even profiting from the situation. So what about the Maghreb countries, of Algeria more particularly? Did our country do better than Tunisia and Morocco?
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To provide some answers to this question, we looked at an analysis by the French economist, Alexandre Mirlicourtois, expert with the Institute for Studies, xerfi. The latter paints a picture of the economic situation of the three countries at the present time, then concludes by establishing a hierarchy of Maghreb economies in 2023.
Tunisia: a country “on the verge of implosion”
Alexandre Mirlicourtois begins by taking stock of the Tunisian economy. The picture is black with our neighbors to the east:
“The Tunisian economy, begins the economist, is certainly the big loser since it is on the verge of implosion. It’s a whole system that is today close to breaking . So much so that the country’s future depends on obtaining a loan of 1.9 billion dollars from the IMF (…).
(The bridge of divergence lay in) the tunisian subsidy system for imported productsto control the prices of hydrocarbons, coffee, sugar, but also national sectors such as milk. A system that has reached breaking point, because the state no longer has the means to finance it.
The Tunisian government is forced to make a choice between protecting citizens’ purchasing power and controlling spending.
Public debt now exceeds 80% of GDP. The deficits are piling up and do not suggest anything other than the continued drift of public finances with a growing risk of payment default (…).
Another unmistakable sign is that foreign exchange reserves are drying up. The (Tunisian) dinar is at its lowest against the dollar and the euro (…). Price increase remains above 10%. It is approaching 16% in food, despite the subsidies.
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The Tunisian economy is at an impasse. Its industry remains undersized and tourism, major currency earneris facing security problems, increased foreign competition and a lack of investment (…).
The brain drain, doctors, engineers, etc., is intensifying and taking on worrying proportions. »
Algeria: the economy is regaining color and “the country is diversifying”
In the second part of Analysis, Alexandre Mirlicourtois examines the case of Algeria. This time things look better:
“Algeria, he underlines, is at the other end of the spectrum. Soaring oil and natural gas (prices) have actually one of the main winners of the energy crisis. And for good reason, Algeria is the world’s 10th largest producer of natural gas and, above all, the 8th exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (…).
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To take full measure of the Algeria’s dependence on hydrocarbons , it suffices to compare 2 curves: that of the price of Brent and that of GDP in value. High oil prices and this is the assurance of an acceleration of growth (…), of foreign exchange reserves which swell. These continue to grow at the start of 2023 ($66 billion currently, editor’s note) (…). »
The correlation is almost perfect between fluctuations in the price of oil and the evolution of Algeria’s GDP (design: xerficanal.com)
However, the economist adds this nuance:
“The appeasement of hydrocarbon prices, he recalls, will weigh this year, but growth forecasts remain positive. (Furthermore), the country is not finished with its structural problems: excessive weight of inefficient public enterprises, corruption lobby of importers (…), weakness of the financial sector, etc.
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But Algeria has taken a turn to restore color to its economic fabric, with in particular the abandonment of the 51%-49% rule which slowed down FDI. There is also the desire to better exploit the subsoil with, for example, the (Algerian-Chinese) phosphate project, the aim of which is to enable the country to become one of the main exporters of fertilizers and fertilisers. In short, the country is diversifying concludes A. Mirlicourtois.
Morocco: despite galloping inflation, the country keeps its head above water
The economics expert ends his overview of the Maghreb with Morocco. A balance sheet half fig, half grape:
In Morocco, food prices have increased by more than 20% at the start of 2023.
“Morocco, analyzes A. Mirlicourtois, is situated in an in-between. Like Tunisia, the country faces a general price increase with inflation at its highest for more than 20 years. On food products, it exceeded 20% last February.
To mitigate its repercussions on households, Morocco has adopted a series of measures, in particular the granting of general subsidies on basic necessitiesand the maintenance of regulated prices (…). But unlike Tunisia, the cost is bearable for public finances (…).
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But even better, the foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high thanks to current account surpluses: largest fertilizer exporter in the world, to which is added the improvement in tourist receipts which overhangs their level of 2019 and the transfers of funds made by Moroccans residing abroad. »
Alexandre Mirlicourtois ends his analysis by establishing a General classificationof the economies of the three Maghreb countries:Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, this is the new hierarchy of Maghreb economies. We leave you with the full video if you want more details and technical explanations:
