Mexico City.- Economic specialists consulted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) estimate that the country will have general inflation this year of 5.05 percent, lower than their forecast last March, which was 5.15 percent.
For core inflation, its estimate was also adjusted slightly downward, going from 5.40 percent to 5.36 percent, according to the April survey published Tuesday by the central bank.
The analysts also made changes to their estimate of the country’s economic growth: by 2023 they expect it to be 1.60 percent, from a previous estimate of 1.40 percent; however, for 2024 they lowered their expectation, to 1.70 percent, from 1.80 percent in the survey last March.
Regarding the factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth in the next six months, specialists consider that, in general, the three main factors are associated with governance, external conditions, and internal economic conditions.
Regarding Banxico’s interest rate, those surveyed foresee that at the end of this year it will be at 11.25 percent, lower than the 11.50 percent previously forecast, while for the end of 2024 they kept their estimate unchanged, placing it at 8.50 percent. hundred.
The survey was carried out by the Mexican central bank to 37 economic analysis and consultancy groups from the national and foreign private sector, whose responses were received between April 19 and 27.
Analysts locate obstacles to business
Crime, the lack of rule of law and corruption are listed as the main obstacles for entrepreneurs when doing business in Mexico, according to the Banxico survey.
According to the results of the study, in April 2023, crime concentrated 27 percent of the responses, one point more than the previous month.
The lack of rule of law was immediately followed, with 23 percent of the responses, from 22 percent in March of this year.
Corruption appears with 23 percent of the responses, three points more than in the third month of 2023.
For its part, the supply of inadequate infrastructure reported 12 percent of the responses among the main obstacles faced by entrepreneurs when doing business in the country.
In the survey, Banxico explains that in the distribution with respect to the total responses, analysts can mention up to three factors that hinder business.
Regarding the sectors of the economy in which specialists consider that there is an absence or a low level of competition, there is energy (oil, gasoline and gas), with 31 percent. Electricity is the other sector of the economy with competition problems in the country, with 30 percent.
The two referred sectors are seconded by telecommunications and internet, with 12 percent of the responses; transport services (highways, railways, airlines, public transport), with 12 percent; bank credit market, with 7 percent; and financial products other than bank credit, with 2 percent.
In addition, the specialists consulted by the central bank also evaluate, on a scale from 1 to 7, whether the prevailing competition conditions in the markets in Mexico are a factor that hinders economic growth, where 1 means that they severely hinder it and 7 that they do not hinder it. In this assessment, the number that presents a higher percentage of responses, with 28.6 percent, in the April survey is 3.
In the quantification of whether the intensity of competition in the markets in Mexico is low or high, where 1 means that it is low and 7 that it is high, 3 stands out with the highest percentage of responses, with 40.0 percent.
