Ukraine War: Spring Offensive Coming Later – That’s why

Everyone talks about her. About the Gegenoffensive. Military experts are puzzling over when Ukraine will be ready for its troops to strike¸ how small the circle around President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and army chief Valery Saluchnyj is, who knows him: the exact date. also read: On site: This is where Ukraine is training for its counter-offensive

Hanno Pevkur is the Minister of Defense of Estonia. He says: “The biggest obstacle to the counter-offensive is the weather.” He means the mud season. In winter, the question was who was affected more by the cold – after the misery of winter, the mud is now affecting both sides.

You can find many such videos or pictures on Twitter. Deep muddy ground impedes mechanized advances. Troop carriers, artillery pieces and at least wheeled tanks would probably get stuck in the soft morass. A success factor for an offensive, however, is the speed of time. If you want to keep the maximum chance of success, you have to be patient and wait. also read: Masala on the war: “Russian offensive failed”

Spring Offensive: Waiting for the mud season to end

A banal but not entirely wrong answer to the question of the right start date is: as soon as the weather permits. If the ground is dry and hard, it is possible to transport larger loads again. But only then. Commander Zalushnyi is on the The meteorologist need to hear.

“Damned.” David Helms sounds contrite. It’s been a month since he had a trafficability prognosis has made. At that time, the American was assuming a “normal” spring rain. He now realizes that was “too optimistic”. April came and with it more rain. Actually every day. In the last two weeks alone, there has been as much rain as in a whole month.

Ukraine War: “Rasputiza” has already been fatal to many generals

Helms spent half his life dealing with the weather, formerly for the US Air Force. As a pensioner, he writes for Ukraine on Twitter today climatic forecasts and analyseswhich he categorizes into temporal and geographic go or no-go phases for the various vehicles – a bite-sized weather report for military decision-makers. This might interest you: Putin nervous: Will the Ukrainian offensive turn the tide of war?

“Rasputiza” is the name given to the mud season in Ukraine, those weeks of the year when there are rains in autumn or that Dew water turn the earth into deep mud in spring. One can, of course, shift military operations to paved roads. But then the vehicles have to advance in columns on the traffic axes, where they make an easy target. Also interesting: Vortex about video on the net: Drone simply bounces off the cheetah

a year ago has “Rasputiza” hindered the entry of Russian troops – and now thwarted an earlier offensive in Ukraine? In the autumn of 1812 Napoleon’s troops were already held up by autumn (and overtaken by winter) during their retreat from Russia; likewise the advance of the Wehrmacht towards the east in the Second World War.

Ukraine Crisis – The most important news about the war

Helms is currently giving Ukraine some hope. For the first week of May he forecast mostly dry, sunny weather with low humidity. If that occurs and persists, the spring offensive more likely every day. Maybe in May, maybe not until June. You might also be interested in: 86 dead for 120 meters: That’s how cruel Putin’s warfare is

Army chief Salushnyj could call the delay gain of time consider: for the training of his soldiers, but also for their equipment. At the end of last year he estimated the need for main battle tanks at 300. So far, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, he has received around 230 from his western partners.

So there is still a lack of weapons and ammunition. Whereby: perhaps even more important than the sheer number could be Technology boost be: Western tanks can shoot further than Russian tanks and destroy them from afar. Especially since reports are mounting that Russia is throwing decades-old tanks into battle. Read about it: Putin causes laughter on the internet with bulky garbage tanks

Ukraine war: Putin’s soldiers are also taking their precautions

For now, twelve combat brigades should have been set up, equipped and trained. That could be leaked secret Pentagon documents remove. Each brigade includes up to 4000 soldiers with everything that goes with it: with battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, personnel carriers.

Many observers consider an attack in the south of the country to be obvious. The goal would be to advance from Zaporizhia to the Sea of ​​Azov. This could cut the land connection between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula. The occupied territories would split in two. According to military economist Marcus Matthias Keupp, who taught at the ETH Zurich Military Academy, “that will be the moment when the Russian defeat emerging”, as he told the “Neue Züricher Zeitung”.

Ukraine war – background and explanations for the conflict

Recently, attacks on supply locations have increased – on both sides. It is also noticeable that the Ukrainian Attacks on the Russian reconnaissance radar have increased. Analysts from the OSINT platform Molfar collected confirmed information about electronic warfare systems destroyed or captured by Ukraine, in particular mobile radar and jamming systems. They already registered an increase in March. A typical indication that an offensive is being prepared. Read about it: Rocket attacks on civilians – sabotage in Russia

However, the soldiers of Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin also know how to use the waiting time until the end of “Rasputitsa”. The Russians continue to expand trenches, anti-tank barriers and mine belts. Nevertheless, the US military expert is coming Michael Kofman in the magazine “Foreign Policy” on a clear assessment of the further development of the Ukraine war: “The longer Ukraine waits, the higher the chances of success.” Army chief Saluschny has to wait and trust the right weatherman. You might also be interested in: Tank accident in Poland: decapitated leopard triggers debate

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