WASHINGTON.- The foreign policy of USA regarding Venezuela post-election is a subject full of uncertainty, whether the dictator Nicolas Maduro declares himself the winner as if the opposition wins. According to analysts, any decision should be coordinated with Brazil y Colombia.
The head of US diplomacy for Latin America, Brian Nicholshe said during a session before Congress: “We want to examine all the information” from the presidential elections and “then we will make a decision.” Nichols stressed the importance of not rushing to judgment, recalling that the Venezuelan electoral council has until August 2 to publish detailed results.
Chavismo is going through one of its worst moments in 25 years. Maduro, in power since 2013, faces an opposition that leads in the polls, despite the political disqualification of its main figure, Maria Corina Machado. Instead, it is presented Edmundo Gonzalez.
Venezuela, once one of the richest economies in Latin America, is suffering from a crisis that has led more than 7 million Venezuelans to emigrate, many of them to the United States. Since 2019, the United States has not maintained diplomatic relations with Venezuela.
That year, the then president Donald Trump imposed severe sanctions on the country, including an embargo on oil and gas, with the intention of bringing down Maduro after elections deemed fraudulent. Joe BidenTrump’s successor, the United States, adopted a more open policy, resuming dialogue with Caracas and partially lifting some sanctions, although he reinstated them in the event of non-compliance by the Maduro regime.
Three scenarios
According to him Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America and the Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public PolicyThe United States must prepare for three possible scenarios:
- Maduro declared winner with no evidence of fraud.
- Maduro declares himself winner despite irregularities.
- The opposition wins the elections.
Michael Shifterformer president of the Inter-American Dialogue, advises the United States to avoid a policy focused on oil control and migration. Instead, he suggests that the United States focus on being a channel of communication for an eventual political negotiation. Working with the opposition could help provide guarantees and protections to Maduro and other Chavista officials, facilitating a transition.
In the event of fraud, the pressure on the Biden administration would be enormous, especially in the context of the November election campaign in the United States. There could be calls for drastic measures, such as reimposing all sanctions and revoking Chevron’s license. However, Shifter warns that such measures would be counterproductive, worsening the humanitarian crisis and encouraging immigration.
Rebecca Hansona professor in the Department of Law at the University of Florida, agrees that sanctions have little impact on Maduro’s political decisions.
Coordination with Brazil and Colombia
In the event of massive fraud, Shifter estimates that the Biden administration will work with Brazil and Colombia to convince Chavismo that such a situation is not sustainable and that Venezuelans will not accept it. Promoting a regional response led by Brazil and Colombia will be crucial, according to the memo from the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy.
Regardless of the outcome, the United States must consider the long-term benefits of a greater Western presence in Venezuela, currently allied with China, Russia and Cuba.
In the event of an opposition victory, Gonzalez declared his intention to immediately re-establish friendly relations with the United States, highlighting the absurd situation of the lack of a diplomatic office in Washington for more than a decade.
Source: With information from AFP
