France has been dry for thirty days. The situation is cause for concern. And for good reason: this has never happened in winter. We have to go back to 1989 to find the last winter record without rain, ie 22 days.
Meteo France observes an advance of the drought by two months, with regard to the soils “significantly drier than they should be at this time of year” ; a situation supposed to occur around the month of April. And if the service estimates that a wet spring would allow the soil to humidify, Serge Zaka, doctor in agroclimatology, underlines with “Obs” that the month of March will be highly decisive.
Why is this drought unusual?
Serge Zaka. More than unusual, this drought is unprecedented! This is a winter record. It is due to an anticyclone which pushes back the rainy areas over the whole of France. But we must not simply look at this period of thirty days without precipitation, the idea is to understand that this month of February follows several months of deficit. We are talking about 25% less precipitation on the scale of France over the whole of 2022. Over the last month, that is to say between January 21 and February 21, the deficit of water has thus fallen to 90% over the country. And even if the forecasts indicate that the rains will arrive from February 22, these are the rains that should only limit this deficit to 50%…
Drought: “If we don’t change course, France will look like California in ten years”
What are the consequences for the months to come?
The 2022 drought carries over into 2023 and could skip the recharge season that allows agricultural soils and groundwater to store water – this period usually runs from November to March. Things will depend on what happens in March. This month must have a water surplus, otherwise we are certain of a water deficit. Currently, throughout France, almost all agricultural soils are dry on the surface, that is to say at the level of the first two meters, where the plants, whose growth begins from April, will recover. The drought will also have repercussions in the depths of the soil, that is to say on the water tables.
To date, there is 20 to 30% less water in the soil and in the groundwater compared to 2022. The example of Perpignan is striking: with 300 millimeters of rain in 2022, we faces a water deficit of 60%, which is close to a semi-arid climate that corresponds to a North African climate.
Drought in France: the water war is declared
What risks are to be expected?
There is a risk of forest fires due to these deficit soil water reserves, and the dry state of the vegetation. And drought decrees are likely to multiply, limiting the use of water for certain activities and at certain times at first. Last year, parts of France were barred from using water for certain non-essential activities and resorted to rationing. Already, at present, the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region and the Pyrénées-Orientales are on drought alert, something that usually only happens from spring.
