The pension reform may have been enacted, but some possibilities are still on the table to avoid its application, from a bill to repeal it to a possible referendum of shared initiative through a decision of the Council of State .
After the success of May 1 with 2.3 million demonstrators throughout France according to the CGT and 782,000 for the police, the fight against the pension reform, promulgated in mid-April, is not over. Some still believe in it, like Jean-Luc Mélenchon who called from the Parisian procession to “don’t give in” and “not to be domesticated”.
A new meeting of the inter-union must be held this Tuesday, with a possible new day of mobilization. Several other steps are expected in the coming days.
• May 3: the validation or not of the shared initiative referendum
The Constitutional Council will give its response on Wednesday to the second request for a shared initiative referendum (RIP) filed by the left on the eve of the partial validation of the reform.
A first version had already been rejected on the grounds that it did not meet the criteria set by the Constitution. Aware of the legal weakness of his previous request, the left senators had filed, even before his rejection, a second proposal. But few believe that this text will be validated this time by the Constitutional Council.
Even in the event of validation, a path strewn with pitfalls would open up, starting with the need to collect the signatures of at least one “tenth of the voters” in favor of the referendum, i.e. 4.87 million people, within 9 months.
Meanwhile, “the RIP does not freeze the application of the law”, recalls the constitutionalist Paul Cassia – an opinion shared by the vast majority of his colleagues. Very concretely, Emmanuel Macron could therefore well enforce the pension reform “in the summer” while the collection of signatures is underway. However, the calculation would be very delicate from a political point of view.
• Next week: a meeting between Borne and the CFDT (and other unions?)
After weeks of tension between the executive and the unions, Elisabeth Borne is trying to renew the dialogue. Matignon announced the sending of invitations to the unions in the coming days.
What hope to put oil in the wheels after the categorical refusal of the Elysée to receive the unions before the reform is promulgated and the failure of the last meeting. On April 5, the centrals had agreed to a meeting with the Prime Minister but had quickly left the table, after having recorded the refusal of the withdrawal of the reform on her part.
After a “period of decency”, the CFDT “will” now discuss”, said Laurent Berger on BFMTV this Monday, while acknowledging “questions of method”.
“I don’t know any other way to do it than to alternate mobilization and discussion,” added the trade unionist.
On the side of the CGT, the tone is quite different, conditioning its participation in the opinion formulated by the inter-union, which meets this Tuesday. The government is considering bilateral meetings, thus offering a way out for the CFDT, which no longer seems to believe in the withdrawal of the text.
Although the agenda for these discussions is not yet known precisely, it has every chance of turning around the future full employment bill which wants to put an end to Pôle emploi and replace it with France travail, far from retirement at age 64.
• June 8: a bill to repeal the pension reform
In the National Assembly, the Liot group, which had already tabled a cross-partisan motion of censure, will defend its bill to repeal the postponement of the legal age to 64. The text will be presented on June 8, during the group’s parliamentary niche.
On paper, the bill is likely to be passed if LR deputies join their voices to those of Nupes and RN. However, its adoption remains very hypothetical.
The Liot deputies will defend their text from 9 a.m. to midnight. Suffice to say that the presidential majority could multiply the tabling of amendments to drag out the debates and prevent the deputies from voting within the time limits.
But even in the event of adoption in the National Assembly, the text should then be voted on in the Senate, which said yes twice to the pension reform, which makes its adoption unlikely.
• In the coming weeks: appeals to the Council of State
The unions have already announced that they want to attack the pension reform decrees as soon as they are published before the Council of State. The method had worked in 2021 for the unemployment insurance reform.
“It is a possibility offered to us by French law and we intend to use it”, explained Dominique Corona, deputy secretary general of Unsa, on BFM Business at the end of April.
What potentially slow down the application of the reform. Be that as it may, the centrals – and many specialists – doubt that the law can really apply in September, given the time needed to draft decrees and update pension fund software.
On the government side, the time is not at all to consider the withdrawal of the reform. Despite very complicated ministerial trips, between concerts of saucepans and lively interpellations, the executive has displayed in recent days its desire to go to the end, while projecting itself into the future. Emmanuel Macron has thus set the course for “100 days of appeasement”, calling for a report on July 14.
