The blue dollar, after registering a record value of $357 in the week, fell this Friday for the second day in a row and closed the last day of the year at $346, with which it had a weekly rise of $6. For analysts, the fall of $11 in the last two days is logical after the jump of $17 in the three previous days, although some traders link it to an eventual sale of dollars by “friendly hands” that sought to lower the price.
A) Yes, the informal dollar registered a rise of $32 or 10.1% in December driven by higher demand (Christmas bonus, vacations, etc.) and lower supply due to the debut of the MEP dollar for foreign tourism. Y closed 2022 with an increase of $138 or 66.34%Therefore, it was below inflation, which accumulated 85.3$% as of November and an interannual variation of 92.4%.
Meanwhile, the financial dollars that are traded in the stock market -counted with liquidation and MEP- closed the week at $344.13 and $327.94, with which in the month they climbed 6.6% and 4.9%, respectively . In the market they say that in the last days official intervention was noticed with the sale of bonds to contain the price. In 2002 the CCL rose 69.7% and the MEP 66.3%.
For his part, he official wholesale dollar closed the year at $177.16, so in December it increased 5.91% and in the year it became more expensive 72.47%
In the government, they anticipate that the parallel dollars will remain calm in the summer. However, analysts consulted by iProfesional estimate that there may be some stability in the first two or three weeks of January, but then upward pressure will reappear due to a combination of factors, for which they warn that “”the first quarter in exchange matters will be complex”, and predict that the currencies of the soybean dollar 2 will have been “exhausted” by March.
Parallel dollars: impact of the soybean dollar 2
It helped the better climate at the end of the year that, hand in hand with the soybean dollar 2, The BCRA ended December with a net purchase balance of US$1,987 million and in all of 2022 it added purchases for US$5,824 million, with which it surpassed the 2021 mark by about US$300 million.
The blue closed the year at $346, after registering a record value of $357 in the week
In the monetary entity they highlighted that there was a overcompliance with the annual target for the accumulation of net reserves with the IMF of US$440 million.
Likewise, on the last day of validity of the soybean dollar 2, soybeans contributed US$118.8 million -operations for US$34 million were closed on Friday and the remaining US$84 million will be settled between Monday and Tuesday-, with what the the settlement under this scheme reached u$s3,154 million. Thus, the initial goal of US$3,000 million was exceeded.
The differential exchange rate at $230 helped strengthen international reserves, which closed 2022 with a stock of US$44,588 million. In other words, with an increase of $5,006 compared to 2021.
The counterpart is the large monetary issue of this measure. Salvador Vitelli, Finance and agribusiness specialist indicated that $583,290 million were issued for the soybean 2 dollar.
In that sense, Sebastian Menescaldidirector of Eco Go, emphasized that “this issuance of pesos in the summer will probably go somewhat toward dollarization and will boost financial dollars.”
Parallel dollars: will they be calm in the summer?
the economist Natalia Motyl estimated that parallel dollars “Until mid-January they can remain relatively calm due to seasonal issues of greater demand for pesos for the holidaysbut at the start of February we will see pressure again”.
For 2 soybean dollars, the BCRA had a net purchase balance of US$1,987 million in December, and US$5,824 million in the year
In this sense, the economist attributed it to the fact that “we are entering a period of lower supply of dollars due to the drop in agricultural sales, the stabilization of commodity prices and the rise in interest rates from the main central banks.”
With the same diagnosis, Tobias Pejkovicheconomist at Facimex Valores, stated that “Starting in the second half of January, and especially in February, we will begin to see the seasonal drop in the demand for money, which could exert greater pressure on the exchange rate gap.”
Vitelli also foresees that “there may be some stability in the first three weeks of January where the demand for money remains firm. But when it begins to fall in February, the free dollars may change a bit, taking into account that there will be no dollar income because of the impact of the drought on the wheat harvest, which is the worst in the last 10 years.
in tune, Fernando Baer, chief economist of Quantum Finanzas, explained that “in the first quarter the increase in demand for money in December was reversed. This, together with the drop in the supply of foreign currency -because there was not a good settlement of the wheat harvest, and that of corn and soybeans are complicated, adding to the fact that the liquidation of stocks was brought forward to December for the soybean 2 dollar-, it may be a seasoning for greater exchange rate tension, perhaps not in January, but in February and March”.
For his part, the financial analyst christian buteler He argued that “the dollars can remain calm in January, that is, they can rise gradually, but they will not remain at a stable value for two months, because it will impact the monetary issue, the fall in the demand for money” and “there is not enough money to maintain an artificial price neither in the MEP, nor in the CCL, nor in the blue”.
Parallel dollars: pressure factors
Pejkovich He listed three reasons why he sees risks that financial dollars and the blue tend to rise instead of remaining stable: “First, the implicit exchange rate is appreciated in relation to the monetary variables of the economy. Second, we are facing a month of strong issuance linked to the monetization of the fiscal deficit, the soybean dollar 2 and the purchases of debt in pesos by the BCRA Third, in two weeks we will begin to see the seasonal decline in the demand for pesos, which will take more boost in February.
The largest issue for the soybean dollar 2 and purchase of BCRA debt bonds will put pressure on free dollars in the summer
Given that situationMenescaldi He affirmed that in the exchange scenario “of the next two months it is “complicated” because “in the summer you are going to lose all the dollars that were obtained” via the soybean dollar 2.
In this regard, the economist indicated that “You have to make payments to the IMF, in January they are US$2,500 million, and you have to pay US$1,000 million to bondholders, and in February US$750 million in interest.”
Baer also highlighted that “2023 is complex because there is no longer any net income from the IMF; that is, more is paid than received.”
In that framework, Menescaldi projected that the BCRA “is going to lose about US$80 million a day in the MULC in the next two months, and that’s going to generate some noise in financial dollars.”
Also, analysts PPI they estimate that sales in the official dollar would reach US$1.2 billion per month until March”, so “reserves could decrease US$4.6 billion in the next three months.”
The Economist Frederick Glustein agreed that, after the end of the soybean 2 dollar, “most likely the BCRA will begin to sell daily on a constant basis until agriculture can begin the liquidation, which will be delayed by the drought and which could have an impact u$ $10 billion less in revenue.”
For 2 soybean dollars, US$3,154 million were liquidated, but the market anticipates that they will have been exhausted by March
“The more the monetary authority sells, the more pressure there will be on the dollar prices” Glustein asserted that he foresees this greater tension at “the end of February and the beginning of March.”
Overdue Parallel Dollars: How Much Can They Get By the End of 2023?
Despite the recent escalation of the blue dollar and the financial ones, economists predict that the trend is upward because the current values are behind compared to inflation and the stock of pesos.
About, Vitelli calculated that the theoretical value of the CCL in relation to the stock of pesos in the economy is equivalent to $418, while he estimated that the blue dollar to match inflation should cost $404. And he said: “It would not come to my attention that by the end of 2023 the financial dollars and the blue go to a range of between $550 and $560”, although he clarified “that these projections will also depend on the political color that wins the elections. If he assumes a pro-market government may relax the price a bit. If not, there may be extra tension”
For his part, Pejkovich specified that “taking the broad monetary base -monetary base plus remunerated BCRA liabilities- the CCL should now be around $376 to align with the number of pesos in the economy.”
At the same time, motyl He predicted that, due to the factors that will exert pressure in the summer, the value of the blue from March could be around $420 and by the end of 2023 it could be $650. And he added: “That, in the best of scenarios, without runs against the peso and with the same monetary policy applied now.” Under this hypothesis, the economist predicted that the CCL would close at the end of 2023 at $620 and the MEP at $600.
For his part, buteler He argued that “in an electoral year it is difficult to make projections” about how much the blue and the financial ones can end in 2023, because many variables can influence it. And he remarked: “What worries me from March, April, is what is going to happen with the debt in pesos“. In this sense, he emphasized that “there it will depend not only on the Government, but on the statements of the opposition, because if it becomes irresponsible and generates doubts in the market, there may be people who do not renew the maturities and go to the dollars parallels. That could lead to a major jump.”
