Since the first electoral results that made Donald Trump In a clear winner, the former president should feel more confident than ever that his party will nominate him.
Although the departure of former governor Ron De Santis from the race for the Republican nomination added impetus to the claims of the former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haleyto defeat Donald Trump, the question is how long will the moment last?
The percentage of Americans who declare themselves independent is at all-time highs, according to Gallup polls from last December, and while Republican voters think Trump is their best option in November, among independents, Nikki Haley is better positioned to win to President Joe Biden, in the race for the White House.
Pollster RealClearPolitics suggests that Haley leads President Joe Biden by 4 points, while Trump only leads by 2 points.
But the disapproval ratings between Trump and Biden are not that far apart. FiveThirtyEight data gives Biden 55.5% rejection and Trump 56%.
For Gallup, Americans are not happy with the general direction of the country and “only 1 in 5 said they are satisfied.” Pessimism is showing in important areas such as immigration, security, foreign policy and the economy, even though the United States will almost certainly avoid a recession.
In fact, the Democrat has the lowest approval rating of any president since Harry S. Truman (1945-1953).
Other conclusions highlight that there is “less trust in the institutions, which have been the pillars of American society and democracy” according to Gallup.
Many would argue that the United States is not a pure democracy but a constitutional republic because, in The Magna Carta, the word democracy is never mentioned.
The story goes that James Madison, before the Constitutional Convention (1787), read widely about failed democracies, becoming convinced that they should be avoided because they easily succumbed to the rule of demagogues and mobs.
“Madison was convinced that direct democracies unleashed populist passions that surpassed the cold, deliberative reason appreciated above all by Enlightenment thinkers,” according to an article by Jeffrey Rosen, published in 2018 by The Atlantic.
In reality, American elections are a long process that begins with political parties in each state choosing lists of potential electors sometime before the general election; Then during the general election, voters in each state select their state’s electors by casting their votes.
The objective is to promote political compromises between different points of view through negotiated concessions seeking to include the rights of minorities.
Once again, the United States is taking a new course in these elections.
Although the first results from Iowa convinced Donald Trump to be the clear winner of all electoral processes, there are several examples where candidates won in that State, but not their party’s nomination, such as: Senator Ted Cruz, in 2016, Rick Santorum, in 2012 or George HW Bush, in 1980, and politics is unpredictable.
The entire Republican campaign could change dramatically if Trump were found guilty in one of the many trials he faces this year, or if the US Supreme Court rules that he cannot run for president for his alleged role in the assault on the Capitol on September 6. January 2021, although the departure of Trump’s rivals turning the battle into a duel of two (Haley versus Trump) adds new interest.
Nomination Election Day is still six months away, and in that time the biggest question about November’s presidential election may have been resolved.
Currently, Trump is the only candidate with widespread support because the party believes that he is the one who has every chance of defeating Biden.
As for Biden, he seems to believe the opposite. He believes his best chance of winning a second term is to have Trump as a Republican rival.
In any case, the candidate of votes and donations in the Republican Party is undoubtedly Trump.
