Mexico City- 72 percent of the participants in the Citibanamex expectation survey estimate that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will maintain the reference rate at 11.25 percent this month.
While nine of the 32 participants in the study anticipate that the next movement in the monetary policy rate will take place in May.
The results of the survey also estimate that the magnitude and date of the next movement in the reference rate are a cut of 25 base points and that it will be in December of this year, respectively.
The consensus continues to anticipate the target rate at the end of 2023 at 11.25 percent, and at 8.50 percent by the end of next year.
On March 30, the Governing Board of Banco de México unanimously decided to raise the target for the overnight Interbank Interest Rate by 25 basis points to 11.25 percent.
The next announcement of the monetary policy decision will be on May 18 of this year.
The respondents forecast that in April the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) will observe a variation of less than 0.02 percent per month, which implies an annual inflation rate of 6.25 percent compared to 6.85 percent in March.
Analysts anticipate core inflation at 0.40 percent monthly or 7.68 percent annually versus 8.09 percent in the third month of the year.
The participants in the study expect a 0.06 percent monthly decrease in the INPC for May, which means an annual rate of 6.00 percent, combined with subjacent inflation of 7.44 percent.
The expectations for headline inflation at the end of 2023 decreased to 5.02 percent from 5.13 percent previously, while for core inflation they remained unchanged at 5.31 percent.
The projection for general inflation at the end of 2024 now stands at 4.02 percent from 4.01 percent a fortnight ago, while for core inflation it remained at 4 percent.
The consensus forecast for the average annual inflation rate in 2025-2029 remains at 3.7 percent.
Other results of the survey include the revision of the estimate of economic growth.
Consensus now estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2023 at 1.9 percent, up from 1.6 percent a fortnight ago.
For 2024, the projection for GDP growth decreased slightly to 1.7 percent, from 1.8 percent in the previous survey.
In exchange matters, it estimates the dollar at 19.20 pesos at the end of 2023, slightly lower than the estimate of 19.28 in the immediately previous survey.
By the end of 2024, the exchange rate is projected at 19.98 pesos, slightly lower than the 20.00 of two weeks ago.
