The economist Salvador Di Stefano analyzed the performance of the official program and explained the situation faced by producers
By iProfessional
02/05/2023 – 19,50hs
The agricultural dollar, the initiative that sought to provide a light of hope to the Government in its search for foreign currency for reserves, fails to start and sets off alarms at the Palacio de Hacienda and at Casa Rosada. The first results of this third export incentive scheme have been worrying and they would not make it possible to get the “push” of dollars that had been planned in the short term.
In this line, the biggest doubts do not lie in the operational difficulties of the first days or in the regulatory doubts, but in if producers will find the price attractive enough to sell now or if, on the contrary, they will prefer to hold on to their meager harvest to wait for a more convenient moment.
For now, this Tuesday the Central Bank had a significant negative balance in the exchange market: it had to sell 133 million dollars. Part of the sales balance was explained by the fact that “payments for energy imports were registered for some US$102 million,” said Gustavo Quintana, an analyst at PR Corredores de Cambio.
In this context, the liquidations of the field did not show dynamism. The contribution of the so-called “soybean dollar 3” was only $54 million. This is worrying data, not only because of the low number, but also because it implies that settlements through this channel fell 32% compared to last Friday (when they had been US$79.7 million).
In this way, the gross reserves of the Central Bank were on the verge of drilling the floor of US$35,000 million (they closed at US$35,078 million), amid the strong sales made during April.
Net reserves, the real support of the monetary authority, are almost zero, if gold is not taken into account, according to specialist estimates.
Reserves in crisis: the agricultural dollar is not having the results that the government expected.
Why doesn’t the agricultural dollar take off and how will it impact reserves?
The economist Salvador Di Stefano explained a series of factors that may influence the success or failure of the measure that enables a differential exchange rate for agricultural producers.
In this sense, he clarified: “On Wednesday the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates will be known, everything would suggest that they will raise it to 5.25% per year. If the rate rises, the dollar appreciates, if this happens it is likely that raw materials fall, starting with oil, which has a significant influence on the agricultural commodities on which we depend, such as soybeans and corn.”
And, directly on the agricultural dollar, he pointed out: “It is not the success that was expected. If you sell soybeans today, they pay you $103,000 a ton. However, you can get a higher price if you trade in the futures market.” In other words, he added: “I sold the November soybean position at $385 and, at the same time, the November future dollar at $480. With both values you build a price in pesos for soybeans of $184,800, this is a rate 79.6% higher than the available and, if we annualize the rate, it gives us 157.0% per year”.
The financial expert, in turn, recommended that producers wait until November to sell soybeans. “Without rushing, you write a check from your account for $184,800 and discount it in the market, that leaves you something like $130,000 in hand. If soybeans and the dollar rise, you will have to replace guarantees. You sell it in November, you don’t deliver it until that date to close the operation without negative variations”he mentioned.
And concluded: “Those who know do not deliver soybeans in the available and take $103,000they give it a financial spin and take a lot more money.”
In other words, it is not convenient for producers to liquidate their merchandise with the current value proposed by the program launched by Massa. While camp leaders wait, reserves appear to be dwindling. Simultaneously, the deficit grows and the International Monetary Fund does not relent in its pressure to meet the goals set.
