When Israel launched the offensive after the attack by the Hamas terrorist group in Gaza, the president, Joe Biden, supported it unconditionally but now seven months later, everything has changed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Biden are almost at the breaking point in their relationship.
Whose fault is it?
From the beginning, Israel’s strategy was to destroy Hamas and Biden agreed with this, as did the United Kingdom among other allies.
However, instead of launching precision strikes to avoid sacrificing civilians, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck where its intelligence services suspected the presence of Hamas, even if it was an apartment complex, a basement a hospital or a mosque.
The IDF dropped bombs from the air and artillery shells until nothing was left standing.
The stupor, national and international, at the level of destruction and the growing number of civilian victims during the first months of war in Gaza, Khan Younis and other cities, began to worry Biden.
This triggered warnings from The White House for Israel not to repeat the same thing in the city of Rafah, under the warning not to send special weapons, due to the dire effects it would have on more than a million Palestinians who live there.
“If you enter Rafah, I will not provide you with the weapons that have been used historically” was Biden’s ultimatum.
Netanyahu’s argument is that Hamas leaders are hiding among civilians in Rafah, above and below the ground.
However, Israel lost Biden’s support, and a global pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel movement has gained strength.
Last Friday, the State Department published the annual report “Human-Rights 2023” pointing out Israel for failing to protect civilians.
The conclusion of the report based on the harm caused to children, women and men caught in this crossfire created by Hamas is that, it is reasonable to conclude that “there are cases in which Israel has acted in a way that is not compatible with international humanitarian law. ”.
Additionally, according to US intelligence, Israeli security forces have inflicted harm on civilians in military operations, potentially using US-provided equipment.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Face The Nation that the United States will not support the raid on Rafah without a “credible plan” to protect civilians.
Although Netanyahu has said that Israel will “act alone,” losing Biden’s support is a mistake and it would therefore be necessary to repair that relationship.
Assuming Biden still supports destroying Hamas, the IDF must still go after the leaders of the massacres in Israel on October 7: Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, and Mohammed Deif, leader of Hamas’ combat brigades But if the IDF eliminates several civilians in the process, there will be a global outcry and condemnation from Washington.
Biden is under enormous political pressure.
Suspending specific weapons for use in Rafah drew criticism from Republicans such as South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, who said “If we withhold the weapons necessary to destroy the enemies of the State of Israel at a time of great danger, we will pay.” a price. This is obscene. It’s stupid. Give Israel what it needs to fight the war it cannot afford to lose.”
The independent Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, said in turn, “What worries me is that this war in Gaza is not only strongly opposed by young people, but also by many people in the Democratic base.”
And another objective is still pending: the release of the Israeli hostages who remain in the hands of Hamas, but a large-scale attack on Rafah could hinder those plans.
That’s why Biden and Netanyahu should focus on restoring their relationship and perhaps agreeing to some form of ceasefire.
Even Netanyahu should consider that the IDF will never be able to eliminate all Hamas members in Gaza. It always seemed like an unrealistic goal, but his own political survival surely prevents him from admitting it publicly.
CIA Director William Burns is involved in trying to negotiate a hostage release deal, but if Netanyahu presses ahead against Rafah, the chances seem remote.
