That is the interpretation of Eduardo Gamarra, a specialist in Political Science and International Relations, of the negotiation that the two leaders concluded this December 20 and that has generated an intense political debate and many doubts within the two countries.
In Venezuela, especially the freedom of Saab, considered the “front man” of the Maduro regime and accused of dark illicit businesses, is harshly questioned within the framework of the Barbados Agreements that contemplate the freedom of Venezuelan political prisoners and the lifting of illegal disqualifications. , which are not fulfilled.
However, for Gamarra, the negotiations that began in 2020, when Saab was transferred to Miami from Cape Verde where he was detained, must be analyzed in light of the context left by the events that have occurred in the last three years, such as the Ukraine-Russia wars. and Israel-Hamas, which has dramatically changed the political landscape, he said.
“Although before these events one could say that bilateral policy was limited exclusively to the democratic transition of Venezuela, today it has changed and there are other considerations that affect the negotiations,” he noted.
US strategic factors
Among the strategic factors, the specialist highlighted the supply of oil to the US, as well as the economic sanctions imposed on Venezuela, some of which were lifted in the course of 2023 as a condition of compliance with the Barbados Agreements, and also the critical situation immigration in the US, with Venezuelans and other Latin American countries, which exerts “enormous pressure” on the Biden government.
From 2021 to 2023, more than 400,000 Venezuelans have entered the United States, according to the Security Office, which is added to the 650,000 recorded in the census with projections carried out in 2020-2021.
“The enormous growth of the migrant population means that the conversions with Venezuela also have to do with the immigration issue, but I think that for me these conversations are ridiculous because Maduro cannot do anything to stop the migratory impulse as long as the economic situation is not changed. and politics of the country,” said Gamarra.
He added: “It is important to understand that context, beyond the specific merits of what President Biden says about the campaign promise he had made to achieve the release of all American prisoners who have been unjustly detained in the rest of the country.” of the world”.
The coincidence of the negotiations with the proximity of 2024, the year of presidential elections in the US and Venezuela, allows Gamarra to visualize a political-electoral purpose. “We are in a very strong electoral process in which re-election is sought in the US and Venezuela at the same time.”
Saab, enigma in politics
The characteristics surrounding the freedom of Alex Saab, whom US prosecutors accuse of having diverted more than 350 million dollars through North American bank accounts, have not been explained by The White House. And neither is the legal figure that Biden used to get him out of the Miami prison, to date.
Political observers maintain that Saab is not diplomatic, as the Maduro regime has presented him. “They falsified the Official Gazette,” says criminal lawyer Omar Estacio. They also consider that the freedom of one of the key business figures of the Maduro regime is a contradiction with US policy against drug trafficking and money laundering.
A riddle, according to Gamarra. “The truth is that we are not going to know, why Saab was not subject to judicial proceedings even though he was detained, so we will not know to what extent he is what was said, if he is a front man for Maduro, but he has received a presidential pardon. “Everything has remained speculation, because we have not had the opportunity to know the information and a trial was not made.”
However, on December 21 it was learned that the judge of the Southern District of Florida, Robert N. Scola, signed an order for the release of Barranquilla businessman Alex Saab on December 14, a week before his arrival in Venezuela, according to AP. .
Balance: Critical for Biden
What the US and Venezuela gain and lose from the Saab exchange negotiations for US prisoners is clear to the political analyst, who believes that “naive optimism” predominates in Biden and his advisors about Maduro’s compliance with the agreements. .
“Perhaps there is some disbelief in this, since history tells us that Maduro fulfills little of what he promises, he is recognized for not complying with the agreements. “We have to wait to know if the agreement is going to be fulfilled.”.
He referred to the harsh criticism “left and right” that the Biden government is receiving. “Although the families of those released are happy, I believe that no one has taken stock of the change of 30 people for one, while there are perhaps more than 270 people imprisoned in Venezuela who do not seem to be released. And perhaps the most common criticism is that no North American citizen is free from being kidnapped.”
“This agreement is going to cost President Biden a lot,” Gamarra continued. “Particularly the reaction has been very negative in the Hispanic community in the state of Florida, but I believe that their political calculation was not necessarily to win votes there, but more towards the rest of the country to achieve some immigration agreement and control what is happening at the border.”
“This is an explanation of why to make that decision now in a context that is obvious that Maduro has not complied with the Barbados agreements until now, although it is difficult to explain,” he indicated.
Favorable for Maduro
Although Biden managed to receive the fugitive Leonard Glenn Francis, prosecuted for a scandalous fraud against the US Navy, among the US prisoners demanded from Maduro, Gamarra considers that the agreement was more favorable for Maduro.
“He had mobilized a campaign on a global scale, convinced the United Nations and a large number of countries that what they had done with Saab was unprecedented, and it resulted in an important publicity coup in his favor. “I think the criticism is totally favorable to Maduro.”
What comes after the Biden-Maduro negotiation remains to be seen, according to Gamarra.
“The process continues and within it it is expected that there will be fair and free elections in Venezuela in 2024; They have not explicitly said whether the candidate (María Corina Machado) is qualified, but there is talk of a process that depends solely and exclusively on Venezuela, Maduro and his advisors. There is faith on the part of President Biden’s government that it will comply, and that is a very risky bet; we’ll see”.
(email protected)
