China is taking advantage of the war in Ukraine and wants to stick with Putin and Russia

Analyse

It took a year to China public to war in Ukraine reported to speak. Many were probably hoping for a word of power – a clenched fist against Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the anniversary of the war, China’s foreign ministry presented a peace plan in early March.
This is intended to end Russia’s war of aggression, which violates international law.

“China’s Position on the Political Solution to the Ukraine Crisis”. Document. In it, the country sets out its position in twelve points: For example, the demands for a ceasefire, peace negotiations, guarantees of sovereignty and independence for both countries and an end to the “expansion of military blocs” and “unilateral sanctions”.

China’s peace plan is probably just a drop in the ocean. Does the country even want peace in Ukraine? Image: AP / Libkos

But the Chinese peace plan is apparently turning out to be a paper tiger.

The war in Ukraine takes China out of the limelight

China expert Temur Umarov does not see the peace plan as a serious attempt to end the war. Because in the end, Chinese President Xi Jinping has no intention of really putting pressure on Putin – the war in the Ukraine put China in an “extremely comfortable position”. Umarov conducts research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with a focus on China, Russia and Central Asia.

His Opinion according to China, it has no real intention of ending the war in Ukraine. “The West is currently investing all of its attention and resources in this war,” Umarov told Watson. On the other side is a very isolated, weakened Russia. All of this is currently playing into China’s hands.

Because: The country is planning something bigger and thinking long-term.

The clash between the giants China and the USA is inevitable

“What China needs right now is time,” says the political scientist. And that’s exactly what the war in Ukraine is giving the Chinese government. While world politics focuses on Ukraine and Russia, China can secretly prepare for an impending confrontation – with the world power USA. This is inevitable.

US sees China as the biggest long-term threat. Image: AP / Alex Brandon

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has repeatedly warned that China could systematically challenge the US. In October he presented the American military strategy before. It does not see Russia, but China, as the greatest long-term threat. The country could reshape the international system in its favor. According to Umarov, it is preparing for this in the background.

And the peace plan is nothing but a bluff?

According to Umarov, the document offers no potential to end the war in Ukraine. It is not a “genuinely meant peace plan” that could change anything. The content is very vague and does not present any concrete options. “Ultimately, the peace plan should polish China’s image,” says the expert. Because the country wants to present itself as an important global player on the world stage. Therefore, China could not remain silent about the war in Ukraine forever.

US President Joe Biden supports Ukraine and personally visited the war zone. Bild: Ukrainian Presidential Press Off / Uncredited

However, the Europeans and the Americans do not want China to interfere too much in solving the war in Ukraine, says military expert Ralph Thiele to watson. Namely, because of the geopolitical dispute between China and the United States about power and prosperity, about the leading role in the world.

The EU and America want to keep China at a distance

One does not want to offer China a platform in Europe, where it plays an important role in the armistice and in securing the armistice, says Thiele. This could strengthen China’s economic and power-political position in Europe, although the US and the EU are concerned with limiting China’s influence in the world and in Europe.

China could well play a key role in the war, says the military expert. On the one hand, China manufactures a mass of high-tech products that Russia needs for its prosperity and also for its ability to wage war. “We’re talking about semiconductors and intermediate products right through to drones,” says Thiele, who is also the chairman of the politico-military party Gesellschaft is.

China probably doesn’t want to throw Putin off the throne

According to Umarov, there is evidence that China is supplying dual-use goods to Russia. In other words, dual-use goods that, due to their technical specifications, can be used for both civil and military purposes. This deal was probably made before the war, says Umraov.

And China just carries on with it – “business as usual”. “In this way, China could have a moderating effect on Russia,” says Thiele. But according to him, the country did not want that until now. For China, this is a European war and the Europeans have to solve the issue themselves.

For Umarov, one thing is certain: in the end, China has no interest in throwing Putin off his throne – in fact, it’s exactly the opposite.

“If the Putin regime were to collapse, it would be a disaster for China,” says Umarov. Because: The Chinese government has a lot in a good Relationship invested between Putin and Xin Jinping. According to Umarov, China has a keen interest in keeping Putin in power.

On the other hand, China does not have the necessary means to implement this wish. It therefore hopes that Putin’s regime will remain stable. Until then, the country will probably maintain its neutral position on the war in Ukraine.

Xi Jinping apparently wants to stick with Vladimir Putin.Image: Pool Sputnik Kremlin / Sergei Bobylev

“In the end, China is the winner of the war”, says Umarov. The war places China in an advantageous position for its political goals. “If you look at it that way, with the war in Ukraine, Russia is helping China to better prepare for the upcoming confrontation with the United States,” says Umarov.