The owner and distributor of Modelo Especial in the United States wants to emphasize that the brand’s rise to the top of the country’s beer market did not happen overnight.
“The fact that we became the No. 1 beer in the US because of a competitor’s moves is not accurate,” said Jim Sabia, executive vice president and managing director of Constellation Brands’ beer division.
“We plan to become the number 1 beer in the US for the next two years; it happened faster than we expected,” he said.
Sabia said the company estimated that Modelo Especial would be the No. 1 beer in the US by 2025. Falling Bud Light sales changed that.
Modelo Especial took over from Bud Light in the US beer market in May and has held the title ever since, according to Nielsen IQ data analyzed by investment firm Wedbush Securities. The data shows that in the four weeks ending May 20, Modelo’s share of total beer sales grew to 10.7%, while Bud Light fell to 9.6%.
Analysts say Modelo’s rise has been accelerated by conservative backlash against Bud Light and its parent company, Anheuser-Busch InBev, after he teamed up with transgender activist and influencer Dylan Mulvaney the previous month. But Modelo was gaining ground in the US beer market for years.
“This was a matter of a long time, if not when. These trends have been building for a long time,” said Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association. “Model has been on the rise and Bud Light has been on the decline as we have seen general changes in the beer market over the last 10 years.”
Now, it is unlikely that Modelo will return the top spot to Bud Light.
“Now that Modelo has outperformed Bud Light, Modelo’s growth is likely to continue to be stronger,” said Gerald Pascarelli, senior vice president of equity research at Wedbush Securities. “There’s really no scenario right now where Bud Light will regain its No. 1 position.”
Constellation says it saw the potential of Modelo Especial as far back as the 1980s, when the company’s beer division was the only U.S. importer of Modelo, Corona and other Mexican beers in the brand’s family.
“We introduced Modelo Especial to the US in 1982 and it has grown double digits in 37 of 41 years, which is incredible,” said Greg Gallagher, vice president of brand marketing for Modelo at Constellation Brands.
“This is not a phase. This is not a flash in the pan. This is a long history of significant steady growth. So we have shown that we can do this for the long term,” he added.
Mexican beer has become increasingly popular in the US over the years. Your domain is displayed in multiple brands beyond Model. Here are the overall sales and market rankings of the Mexican brands for the 12 weeks ending July 15, according to NielsenIQ and Wedbush Securities:
- No. 1: Special Model, $1.02 billion
- No. 6: Corona Extra, $571.6 million
- No. 16: Pacific, $97.9 million
- No. 17 Dos Equis, $96.6 million
- No. 19 Coronita Extra $80.2 million
- No. 20 Family Crown $72.3 million
Mexico ships more beer to the US than any other country. Between 2013 and 2023, imports of US beer from Mexico more than doubled, according to data from the Beer Institute.
But when it comes to success in the Mexican beer market, Constellation is relatively untouchable.
“Constellation Brands is like the only game in town when you look at major Mexican imports,” Pascarelli said. “They are very much a unique brand as they have the two largest Mexican imports into the US.”
According to Circana data, Constellation sales represent 92.5% of the dollar shares of the entire Mexican import category.
This article It was originally published in English by natalie rice for our sister network CNBC.com. For more from CNBC enter here.
