The increase in the price of food, one of the great concerns of Argentines / web
After knowing the official inflation index for January, consultants projected that in February it will be between 5.5 percent and 6.1 percent. If so, it would exceed 100 percent year-on-year.
One of the variables to consider will be the evolution of retail prices and, in this area, especially, the increase that the price of meat has been registering.
According to data from INDEC, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accumulated up to January an increase of 98.8 percent, this being the highest value recorded for approximately 30 years. In the event that inflation in February is finally 6 percent or more, it would be exceeding three digits in the interannual calculation, according to what the Mediterranean Foundation indicated.
The renewal of the Fair Prices Program seeks to put a stop to this inflationary escalation. An example of this effect is the increase in the food item of 3.2 percent per month compared to 4 percent in the previous month, which in no way means control of the problem. On the contrary, the different variants of these price controls have not ended up providing important results, which have a noticeable influence on a decrease in inflation.
The risks and uncertainties in this regard come hand in hand with the Government’s projects in an election year, the control of the exchange gap in the complicated environmental context marked by the drought, added to the payment or refinancing of the debt whose maturities are in the months of April and September, are the reasons that can herald a new remarking of prices.
projections
Santiago Manoukian, head of Research at Ecolatina, pointed out that in Greater Buenos Aires, the CPI measurement registered between the first half of January and February marked an increase of 6.1 percent, consolidating the inflationary outbreak of the month of January.
As reported by Ecolatina, seasonal prices moved 5 percent (2.1 points less than in the first half of January), highlighted by lower growth in the items: clothing, vegetables, and tourism. While regulated prices advanced 3 percent monthly.
The CPI Core category was the one that grew the most (+7.3 percent). It should be noted that this excludes regulated and seasonal prices with a high tax component, explained the consultant. Among the main increases, the following stand out: food and beverages (+9.2 percent) being the determining variable, the increase in the price of bovine meat (+22.2 percent) as a result of the increase in standing cattle since the second fortnight of January of 40 percent.
Sebastián Menescaldi of the consultancy Eco.Go, estimated for his part that the general increase in prices for this month will be around 6.1 percent, which would mark year-on-year inflation of 102.9 percent.
It should be noted that this consultancy was the one with the most accurate forecast for the official inflation data for the month of January.
The Government still cannot put a stop to inflation
Other consultants such as MAP Economic & Business Advisors indicate a year-on-year increase of 103.5 percent with an average monthly increase of 6.1 percent between February and December.
The Equilibra economic analysis center estimates inflation for the month of February ranging from 5 percent while for C&T it would be 5.5 percent.
The studies for the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank forecast inflation of 5.5 percent for February, while for the first semester it would be around 5.7 percent.
Although the inflationary inertia itself would be a specific factor to take into account for the near future, there are other contributors that would surely help to maintain it: for example, the contracts that are negotiated on the data of previous inflation; the continuous adjustments of public services that, when suffering the removal of subsidies, will have an influence on retail prices; the restrictions on the dollar and the current and increasingly pronounced union pressures.
These circumstances, in this year’s electoral framework, may lead the Government to rethink the possibility of a new increase in social spending.
