In an opinion submitted at the end of 2022, the successor to the Scientific Council explains that the low immunity of the Chinese population could limit the risk to European populations.
On Friday December 30, preceded by many European neighbors, the French government finally took the decision to impose a negative test for all travelers from China, as well as the return to wearing a mask on planes. A retaliatory measure against Covid-19, justified by the explosion of cases in the most populous country in the world.
After three years of drastic management of the epidemic, the Beijing authorities hastily eased epidemic containment measures at the end of 2022, in the face of an unprecedented protest movement since Tiananmen. It is therefore no longer compulsory for a person who has tested positive to isolate themselves in a closed centre. And from January 8, Chinese travelers will be able to travel abroad without being imposed a quarantine upon their return.
This prospect is viewed with nervousness by Western countries, especially as China is accused of not transparently communicating its epidemic data. Only anonymous testimony or provided by Western journalists report overcrowded hospitals and morgue.
1 million cases per day
It is in this context that the Covars, which came to replace the Scientific Council last October, provided the French authorities on December 29 with a “news update on Covid-19 in connection with the Chinese epidemic”. The committee, led by immunologist Brigitte Autran, does not hide the seriousness of the situation in China.
“An epidemic wave due to Omicron variants has been raging in China for several months, including a major wave in April/May 2022 followed by a plateau and then a wave of major intensity since the cessation of the ‘Zero-Covid’ barrier measures “, write the experts in the document that BFMTV was able to consult.
A model developed by researchers at the University of Hong Kong even evokes a million new positive cases per day. In Italy, which started testing passengers from China at the end of December, positivity rates of 38% and 52% were observed at Milan airport on December 28 among passengers from from China.
“Illusory”
Faced with these elements, will the measures announced by the French government make it possible to effectively curb the arrival of new cases from China? And will they prove effective in blocking the arrival on French territory of a possible new Chinese variant? The Covars are more than measured in their opinion:
“The restrictions imposed on South Africa during the emergence of Omicron in late 2021 had very little impact on the evolution of the epidemic in Europe, as Omicron was introduced in Europe by countries other than the ‘South Africa”.
Thus, wanting to “delay the introduction of Chinese cases or variants seems illusory”, underlines the committee. A finding supported by the speed at which the epidemic is spreading in China. Similarly, testing passengers upon arrival could be useful in detecting the arrival of new variants.
But the approach “must remain compatible with the free movement of positive people, as defined by French law”, writes the Covars.
In the end, the Committee recommends requiring a negative test within 48 hours prior to departure from China, imposing masks on the plane, but also requiring a complete vaccination certificate from travelers. As far as screening tests on arrival are concerned, they must be offered on a voluntary basis, randomly or even to “febrile / symptomatic” people.
Less dangerous variants for Europeans?
However, the Covars is not alarmist about the situation. First, because the Chinese population has very little immunity after three years of “Zero-Covid” management, unlike European populations, who have been massively exposed to Covid-19.
“The variants likely to emerge in China in this context of a different immune profile between Chinese and European populations, may not have the immune escape characteristics allowing them to spread easily in the European population”, write the Covars experts.
The latter even believe that the arrival of new travelers from China could have little or no influence on the epidemic dynamics in France. “The arrival of a few hundred additional cases from China and carriers of variants already circulating in France should not fundamentally change the local dynamics”, writes the Covars.
Thus, “managing arrivals from China (…) would not impact the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France”.
