Inflation, currency collapse, corruption, sluggish aid after the earthquake and a united opposition – at first glance, things are looking bad for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of Sunday’s elections.
Nevertheless, in the polls his government is only just behind the opposition alliance of six parties that want to end Erdogan’s era.
Pollsters expect a tight election outcome on Sunday – why? Five reasons why millions of Turks stand by Erdogan.
1 The broad base of the AKP
According to official figures, the governing party AKP, founded by Erdogan in 2001, has around eleven million members and is by far the strongest political force in Turkey.
This means that almost one in six of the country’s 64 million voters is a member of the AKP. Adding in the families of AKP members broadens the base of the ruling party even further.
Erdogan thus has a core constituency that is unattainable for other parties. The second largest party, the opposition CHP of presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has almost 1.4 million members. All other parties are below the million mark.
2 AKP followers sit in state institutions
Erdogan has turned the AKP into a state party. Their followers sit in the bureaucracy, the judiciary and the media, which is noticeable in the election campaign.
Provincial and municipal governments provide public resources such as buses for AKP events or oblige their officials and employees to attend AKP rallies.
33
hours of airtime Erdogan had the state broadcaster TRT in April alone – his challenger 32 minutes.
The state television broadcaster TRT, which is independent on paper, devoted almost 33 hours of broadcasting time to Erdogan in April – his challenger Kilicdaroglu had 32 minutes.
Applicants who are not members of the AKP or have close ties to the government can hardly reach high posts in the state apparatus. Government-affiliated corporations make money from public tenders.
3 The Choice Gifts
Because Erdogan controls public finances in the Turkish presidential system, he can hand out expensive election gifts as he pleases.
In the election campaign so far he has raised the minimum wage and announced another increase after the election, lowered the retirement age for millions of Turks and capped gas prices for private households. According to the polls, this is paying off for Erdogan.
4 The Erdogan Factor
The 69-year-old president is adored by his supporters. They call him “Boss” and adore him because he led Turkey out of a deep economic crisis in the early 2000s and, in the years that followed, abolished the headscarf ban in the public sector and ended the political influence of the military.
Even after more than 20 years in power, Erdogan knows how to present himself as a man off the street. Hundreds of thousands of people attended his central election rally in Istanbul last weekend.
A brilliant orator with a keen sense of popular sentiment, Erdogan polarizes society to motivate his supporters.
That’s a pure dose of nationalism straight into your vein.
Selim KoruTurkey expert, on Erdogan’s election strategy
During the election campaign, Erdogan accuses the opposition of collaborating with the Kurdish terrorist organization PKK and serving the West.
5 The “Century of Türkiye”
The vision of a strong Turkey that is on an equal footing with world powers like China, Russia or the USA is at the heart of Erdogan’s election campaign.
He presents Turkish-made drones, warships and electric cars, as well as newly discovered natural gas and oil deposits, as the foundations for a “century of Turkey” – and himself as the man who can lead the country into this golden future.
The President can use it to distract attention from the bad economic situation. The tactic works surprisingly well, says Turkey expert Selim Koru.
Erdogan’s voters believed they were on the right side in “the epic battle between good and evil,” Koru wrote in his newsletter. “That’s a pure dose of nationalism straight into your vein.” On Sunday it will become clear whether this dose is enough for Erdogan to win.
