Facing a new week that begins, these are the key variables of the Argentine economy that must be taken into account
By Christian A. Buteler
17/04/2023 – 07,15hs
From “The keys of the week“We will try to bring the data to take into account in the week that begins, in a few lines and in a concrete way, the main variables that affect the investor. What the market observes and expects for the next 5 days.
1 dollar
Banco Nación $221.00 +1.14% weekly
- Blue $400 +2.04% weekly
- MEP $391.62 -0.96% weekly
- CCL $401.85 -0.04% weekly
Gap with the official dollar
mixed week for alternative dollars with a rebound in the blue and a small drop in financials. The underlying trend of the dollars is upward nominal, whether it is at a higher or lower rate than inflation depends on several factors including the issuance of money, last week the soybean dollar began and the pesos will arrive when it begins On accounts parts of them will go on dollars.
2- Rates
- Traditional fixed term 6.41% TEM
- Fixed term UVA: 7.7% for the current month, 7% and 6.3% estimated for the following months according to the latest REM (Survey of market expectations)
- US 10-year rate 3.52% +11bps
The inflation data was worse than expected, this week the BCRA will decide whether or not to raise the rate. A contractive monetary measure that is of little use in the midst of a mega issue of pesos for the soybean III dollar. Except for an aggressive rise in the rate, something that is not expected, those who adjust for UVA are the exclusive choice for fixed terms
3- Actions
- Merval 275,717.40 +9.04% weekly
- Merval in u$s 680.99 +9.95% weekly
- The S&P 500 is up 4,137.64 +0.79% for the week
Local market: The local market recovers its upward trend with another very good week in results, both in pesos and in dollars. Stocks are detached from real economy data showing signs of a sharp slowdown and falling projections for this year, the big question is whether it can sustain this trend if the real economy falls. Meanwhile, the strategy should be to follow the trend by raising the stop-loss.
American market: A very good inflation data that was not accompanied by the market that had a discreet result. Balance season begins, which will be the ones that move prices.
4- Bonuses
- Country risk 2,410 -62 bp
Dollar bonds: Week where dollar bonds stopped falling, which in the current context is quite a bit. Prices look attractive again, but an economy with rising inflation, loss of reserves, no economic plan, and activity that shows signs of falling, there is no possibility of sustaining interest in bonds.
Bonds in pesos: If there is something that is not going to be missing in this economy, it is pesos. The new soybean III plan estimates an issue between $1.5 and $1.8 trillion; some instrument must be the recipient of these pesos to try to maintain its value. Although an event with the debt in local currency cannot be ruled out at some point, the excess of pesos plays as a factor sustaining demand.
5- Private deposits in dollars
Private deposits in dollars as of April 12 reached US$16,004 million, after a start to the year that showed some stability since the middle of last month, there is an outflow of deposits that already amounts to US$400 million and that does not seems to stop for now. In an election year, a drop in deposits is to be expected, but the movement we are seeing is more related to the continuous and worrying drop in reserves than to electoral effects.
