The Mexican economy lost strength last February and grew less than expected, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), which monitors the Mexican economy on a monthly basis, reported a monthly growth of just 0.1% in the second month of the year, with seasonally adjusted figures.
This represents a slowdown from the 0.6% rate reported at the beginning of the year.
Although the economy continues to show growth rates in a monthly comparison, the February data from the IGAE was lower than that estimated by Inegi itself in the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), which showed a projection of 0.7 percent.
According to Marcos Daniel Arias, an analyst at Monex, the slowdown was due to the weak performance of the services sector, which, contrary to expectations, showed a monthly contraction in February.
With the February data, and the March estimate, the Monex analyst calculated that growth in the first three months of the year could be 0.90% compared to quarterly, while Alejandro Saldaña, deputy director of Economic Analysis at Ve por Más (Bx+) pointed out that, in annual comparison, the dynamism of economic activity would be around 3.1 percent.
“In addition, the investments associated with nearshoring and the T-MEC would support the Mexican economy in this and in the coming years, especially in the northern region. However, we maintain as a central scenario that GDP exhibits a clear slowdown later in the year, mainly as a consequence of the synchronized global monetary tightening, which is expected”, he added.
Tourism, the most affected
Within the Inegi report, it was observed that the weakness occurred in the service sector, where some of its items are still lagging behind with respect to the recovery of the economy after the impact of Covid-19 in 2020.
The data showed that in February, the services sector showed a contraction of 0.12% per month.
In the interior, temporary accommodation and beverage preparation services were the ones that showed the greatest decrease, with 1.7% in a monthly comparison.
“The services linked to tourism were the ones that were most affected, such as accommodation (-1.12%) and transportation, mail and information (-0.61 percent). This allows us to anticipate a certain rebound towards March and April, since there are signs that the Easter holiday season was especially dynamic,” said the Monex analyst.
Regarding the other economic sectors, agriculture had a monthly growth of 4.2%, hand in hand with the rebound in agricultural exports, said the Bx+ analyst.
On the other hand, secondary activities, where industries are included, showed a monthly growth of 0.7% after the fall observed last January.
Within these, the mining sector was the one that showed the best performance, with a monthly growth of 4.1 percent.
