Eric Ciotti knows Emmanuel Macron well. Elisabeth Borne, much less. In the memory of the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes remains only the vague memory of a meeting with the ex-president of the RATP in the office of Christian Jacob to discuss the subjects of radicalization. Years have passed. On Wednesday, December 21, the brand new boss of the Republicans goes to Matignon to discuss with the Prime Minister. After a few pleasantries about the city of Nice, the subject of pensions is put on the table. The equation is simple: without the support of LR, no majority in the National Assembly. The discussion is calm. “I found her open and courteous in her approach,” recalls Eric Ciotti. The elected official leaves the meeting with the conviction that the government will be inspired by the senatorial right, which voted this fall to raise the legal age of departure to 64 years. In front of the cameras, the opponent lists his “conditions” in support of the reform, in an expected scenography.
The essential is elsewhere: Elisabeth Borne has found an ally. A master in negotiation, with recognized political skill. “It’s easy to work with him, admits the president of the Renaissance group Aurore Bergé. He does not have a public speech and a private speech.” Whoever promised to vote Eric Zemmour against Emmanuel Macron is ready to save the head of state. The president of LR believes that the credibility of the right is at stake on this file. Hasn’t she been pleading for years for a reform of this nature? “We cannot change our minds, even if some are afraid of offering success to Macron”, confides the Azurean. For consistency and strategy, Eric Ciotti does not want to play with fire. The elected official is convinced that the right can win back part of the Macronist electorate with a reformist discourse. The Elysée is well worth a compromise.
LR, this strange ally. In addition to Eric Ciotti, Elisabeth Borne exchanges with the boss of the LR deputies Olivier Marleix and his counterpart in the Senate, Bruno Retailleau. With a preference for the second, whose mastery of the pension file she praises. “We discuss subjects in a technical and political way, it allows us to get straight to the point”, confides Bruno Retailleau. This triumvirate is not one: the head of government meets each interlocutor individually. In private, she is surprised by this curious polyphony. Everyone has their priorities: the Senate is united on the merits, the LR deputies are struggling to tune their violins. Coming from rural and popular constituencies, some refuse any reform. Others don’t want to hear about age measurement. Internal meetings follow one another, at the cost of great tension. On December 13, Olivier Marleix and Aurélien Pradié tear themselves apart in front of their peers. The deputy of Lot, herald of a social right, refuses any age measurement. He criticizes the boss of the group for his professorial tone, he who tries to bring out a consensus on a postponement to 63 years. “We have the right to express divergent points of view in a meeting,” he says.
Gradually, a harmony is emerging. During the holidays, Eric Ciotti and Bruno Retailleau talk several times on the phone. They leave aside the development of the new organization chart of LR to unify their positions. At the Palais Bourbon, a majority of the LR group is used to the idea of supporting the reform, in return for social compensation. “Borne has exhausted the charm of 49.3, she does not take pleasure in using it, notes Olivier Marleix. On the other hand, she is eager to find an agreement with LR.” Here is the right struggling with its eternal dilemma. The ambiguity of its positioning is the price of ideological coherence. A prominent minister analyzes: “They only have bad options. If they vote for pensions and immigration, even with several degrees of yes, in the end they no longer exist.” A majority is emerging in the Assembly; she cannot be found on the street.
38 degrees, almost 39. Boris Vallaud’s thermometer panics. The boss of the socialist deputies is smoldering with the flu. He puts on his suit with difficulty and prepares his down jacket to brave the temperatures of this December 15, and does not forget his tie. In a few hours, he has an appointment with Elisabeth Borne. All the feathered leaders of the political groups of the National Assembly and the Senate parade in Matignon for ultimate “consultations”. The negotiating table, where Vallaud sits, has nothing to do with it. Here, we know each other and we talk to each other. During the Holland quinquennium, when he headed the cabinet of Arnaud Montebourg, Borne maneuvered that of Ségolène Royal. There is also Minister Olivier Dussopt and Aurélien Rousseau, the “dircab” of Borne. Knowledge of a not so distant socialist past. Frank Riester, Minister for Relations with Parliament, must feel quite alone. Vallaud listens to the presentation of the hosts on wear and tear at work, the employment of seniors, the age of departure… And cuts: “We are not going to tell stories. “It’s information. You don’t want our opinion. Age measurement is out of the question. Let’s not try to make believe that there can be a compromise.”
We have known reunions of happier old comrades. The day before, the one with the communist André Chassaigne was not more famous. And with the Insoumise Mathilde Panot on the same day, it won’t be better. Did Elisabeth Borne suspect that she would not reach any compromise with the left? “She’s going to harden her tone, really? If she starts to become unpleasant, we won’t necessarily realize it,” said the Prime Minister with a smirk on the eve of the holidays. Because the Nupes does not intend to agree with the government any more in 2023 than in 2022. The compromise? It never crossed the minds of the tenors of the new left, whether from LFI, EELV, PCF or even the PS. This is not his agenda. Since it is united under the same banner, it seeks to restore its image. “We are the first of the oppositions, and this is not the time to bow down, explains another socialist executive. No, the moment is for the reconstruction of the left and our participation in social movements, alongside the unions, is one of the keys to 2027. We have to be there.”
For weeks now, the Nupes has been preparing to pound the pavement against the pension reform. This battle would be the first step in putting Emmanuel Macron under pressure. The beginning of a “big night”. The meetings organized by the thinking heads abound in the four corners of the country. The Insoumis have swallowed their post-legislative pride so as not to rush the unions. Exit the “big steps” imagined by Jean-Luc Mélenchon who angered the unions. That of January 21 will not be the “alpha and omega” of the battle, moderates an LFI deputy who wants to leave the leadership to the unions: “We will support each of the mobilizations and everyone will understand that the backbone of this movement , it’s the inter-union. We must abandon the idea of a Nupes march if it disturbs and disturbs the unions.” Especially since the eyes of the Nupes scrutinize the CFDT, and especially the words and gestures of Laurent Berger, the leader of the reformist union. A few days before Christmas, in the office of the LFI deputy and chairman of the Finance Committee, Eric Coquerel, Philippe Martinez, leader of the CGT, even worried about it: “The inter-union must not give up in a few weeks. , but Berger seems to me to be up like a cuckoo too.”
The left hopes for the street, but will it respond? A minister close to the Head of State is worried that an awakening of mobilization will complicate the continuation of the adventures of the government in 2023: “The risk is not a blockage of the country, but anger. This reform will create resentment and will reinforce the idea of an unsocial climate, little attentive to concerns. The Insoumis believe in it hard as iron. They will table thousands of amendments to “bog down the debates and launch the mobilization”, says Eric Coquerel. He begins to dream of a 1995 bis: “What is being played there is another film like in 1995. It was a double victory for the left. The street was only the first stage which led to the dissolution two years later. History can repeat itself.”
Dissolution. They only have that word in their mouths. All. To the left to the right. At the beginning of December, Stanislas Guérini, Minister of the Public Service, receives Olivier Marleix, leader of the LR deputies. “How do you integrate the position of right-wing senators?” asks first. Marleix, freshly: “They are being clever, but that does not commit us.” And as often, the conversation is heading towards dissolution. The LR man does not disassemble: “If it takes place, we regain all the constituencies except those which are in the hands of the LR-macronists.” Stanislas Guérini will report on the conversation: “He’s not afraid of anything!”
Dissolution ? There are those who believe in it, and play bets like François Patriat, the president of the Macronist senators: “I think we will be entitled to it in the fall”; and those who don’t believe in it at all. “Let’s be honest: not a single deputy wants to go back to the campaign trail today,” said Aurore Bergé, patroness of the Renaissance deputies. The President of the Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, does not have more ants in the legs. Even Elisabeth Borne, in private, is convinced that the deputies of Nupes are “died of funk” in front of the hypothesis. Or the socialist Boris Vallaud: “The time has not come for a fall of the government, because there is no alternative majority in the hemicycle.”
And yet, the options are dwindling as the five-year term progresses. The pension reform is only one day among others of this social winter which cools the executive. The crisis in the health system continues, with liberal doctors continuing their strike. And the examination of the immigration law should tend the situation a little more. If Emmanuel Macron can count on the support of the Republicans for pensions, this support is only too ephemeral. The head of state lacks political breath in the face of opposition, including LR, who will seek in 2023 to stifle him. “I don’t see how we reattack a second budget with twelve 49.3”, sighs Patriat.
It is understood: Macron has the idea in mind. He knows that in 2024, two other competitions await him, the Olympics and the Europeans. Will pension reform provide an opportunity or an obligation? If he manages to pass the text with the help of LR, an excess of confidence could push him to dissolve, believing that a majority is waiting for him somewhere in France. If he fails, will he have any other choices? On November 2, the Café Pierre, at the mouth of the Place de la République in Paris, came alive. Jean-Luc Mélenchon walks through the door and sinks into one of the blood-red upholstered sofas. He sips a hot chocolate, then another. And smiled, sure of himself. “The countdown has begun. The retreats? This will be his final stand.” 2023, year of the mess?
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