On May 14 Turkey will elect the parliament and the president. But Erdogan’s power is crumbling. Far-right parties are taking advantage of the government’s weakness and putting pressure on the president. They want to massively worsen the protection of women against violence.
They’re small, but could tip the scales in a tight election race. They know that very well – and take advantage of it. Islamist splinter parties see themselves on the rise in Turkey – above all the “New Welfare Party” and “HÜDA PAR”.
Turkish parties want to abolish legal protection against violence for women
According to surveys, both parties together currently have a share of the vote of around two percent. But now both have offered their support to Erdogan’s electoral alliance – on condition that he assures them that Law 6284 will be abolished.
A condition that caused an outcry in Turkey. Law 6284 obliges the state to protect women from violence and, if necessary, to guarantee them anonymity. At least 234 women were victims of femicide in 2022 alone. In addition, the platform “We will stop the murder of women” added 245 other suspected cases. Violence against women – a very serious problem in the country.
Pressure on Turkish government: reverse laws
Laws protecting women have long been a thorn in the side of many Islamist parties and communities. Such laws, they claim, lead to a rise in divorce rates in Turkey and reflect Western interference in Muslim-Turkish family structures.
For years, Islamists have repeatedly sparked campaigns, for example against alimony payments to women. And at every opportunity they increase the pressure on the AKP government to reverse such already existing laws. In response to her distress, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rescinded the international Istanbul Convention for the Protection of Women from Violence two years ago.
Now these parties smell dawn again. Because shortly before the elections, opinion polls show that the government alliance is losing popularity. According to polls, Erdogan is also behind his rival as a presidential candidate. Now he’s trying to find new allies. And they take advantage of the moment and make demands such as the abolition of law 6284.
But the outrage among many female AKP members was so great that no agreement has yet been reached. Perhaps the fear of losing female votes also plays a role. Because the AKP is still very popular, especially among more conservative women.
Erdogan’s allies: far-right “grey wolves”
In addition to the conservative Islamic AKP, Erdogan’s electoral alliance has so far also included the ultra-nationalist parties MHP and BBP. They both come from the “Ülkücü movement”, which is better known in Germany as the right-wing extremist Gray Wolves.
According to the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the Gray Wolves are classified as extremely nationalistic, anti-Semitic and racist. Their enemy images include above all Kurds, Jews, Armenians and Christians, because they are firmly convinced of the superiority of the Turkish nation. According to the authorities, they are therefore pursuing the goal of establishing a homogeneous state of all Turkic peoples under the leadership of Turks from the Balkans to western China. “The Gray Wolves’ worldview violates the principle of equality enshrined in the Basic Law,” the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) told DW.
According to BfV, Erdogan’s largest partner MHP is the original organization of the Gray Wolves. Their interests are represented by the Federation of Turkish Democratic Idealist Associations in Germany, ADÜTDF for short. With 7,000 members, it is the largest umbrella organization within the Gray Wolves. For years he has been observed by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
The Office for the Protection of the Constitution monitors the organization in Germany
Erdogan’s other partner, the Great Unity Party, or BBP for short, also comes from the ideology of the Gray Wolves. For them, Islam is an important element of Turkish identity. Many political murders are attributed to the BBP in Turkey. Its members are said to have been involved in the murder of the Armenian journalist Hrant Dink, among other things. According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the Federation of World Order in Europe (ANF) is the European organization of the BBP. The ANF is also observed by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
In the presidential elections, but not yet in the parliamentary elections, Erdogan is also supported by the Islamist party HÜDA PAR, which according to the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution of North Rhine-Westphalia is close to the Turkish Hizbullah (TH). The Turkish Hezbollah murdered many human rights activists, business people and politicians in Anatolia, especially in the 1990s. According to the authorities, it has 400 members in Germany and is also being observed.
Erdogan’s electoral alliance – political Islam and ultra-nationalism
The current polls are now predicting a tight race between the governing alliance and the opposition alliance. During his time, Erdogan built up a large power apparatus. He has also created his own elite through government contracts, nepotism and corruption. He granted numerous privileges to the Muslim orders. A defeat in the upcoming elections means a loss of influence and wealth for them. Recently, Menzil, Turkey’s orthodox Sufi order with the most members, announced its support for Erdogan’s alliance.
This announcement comes as no surprise to Turkey expert Thomas Schmidinger, because Erdogan’s electoral alliance is a combination of political Islam and ultra-nationalism. “Especially Menzil has replaced the Gülen movement as one of the most important religious networks of the AKP since the attempted coup in 2016,” he says. In his opinion, it is now logical for the order to try to defend its newly won privileges through the AKP.
The Turkish government declared the Gülen movement a terrorist organization in 2016. Erdogan suspects the preacher Fethullah Gülen, who lives in US exile, to be behind the attempted coup on July 15, 2016. The Gülen movement had previously been an important pillar of the AKP since Erdogan took power in 2002.
Expert considers Erdogan’s victory unlikely
If Erdogan and his electoral alliance should win again, the Viennese political scientist Schmidinger does not initially expect any political changes. Erdogan will continue to pursue an aggressive foreign policy to compensate for domestic problems.
However, Schmidinger also believes that the government election alliance is unlikely to win the elections from today’s perspective. Because of the failure in economic policy and the poor crisis management after the big earthquake in February, the alliance led by the AKP no longer has a majority behind it. “And elections in Turkey can only be rigged to a certain extent,” he adds, recalling the allegations of manipulation in recent years.
Would Erdogan voluntarily leave the field in the event of a defeat? Schmidinger has his doubts. Because he says that the Turkish state is largely controlled by followers of Erdogan. In addition, since the attempted coup there have been many weapons in the hands of his supporters, which could also make armed conflicts possible. Schmidinger believes that a regime change would not go completely smoothly, even if the election were lost.
Autor: Elmas Topcu
