Four perspectives: How could the war in Ukraine continue?

International

Exactly one year is the Russian attack on the Ukraine now here. An end acceptable to Ukraine – without parts of the territory and thus of the sovereignty Russia to be handed over – is not yet in sight. How could it go on?

This question watson has four People related to the war: Yuliia, who works for NGOs in Ukraine, military expert Ralph Thiele, Marynka, volunteer worker and Dmitry, who did not want to fight against Ukrainians and fled Russia.

The translator

Watson first saw Yuliia in Dnipro in May. She worked as a translator for behavioral, risk assessment and first aid training. The paths crossed again and again. Watson last met her in the Donbass. The ex-journalist comes from the now occupied city of Luhansk, but fled eight years ago. Since May she has been working for non-governmental organizations – including Global Response Management, Team Rubicon, Cadus and Vostok SOS.

Yuliia has been working as a translator for foreign aid organizations in eastern Ukraine since May.Image: Private

“The next few weeks will be difficult and maybe crucial. But for us, every week since February 24, 2022 has been difficult and crucial.

I expect hostilities to intensify in the coming months.

The Ukrainian army wants to recapture our territories. Despite all the losses and lack of success, the Russian leadership does not want to accept the reality. She doesn’t want to withdraw her troops and hence this Life save their people – their soldiers are dying needlessly in this war.

Rocket attacks on peaceful cities may increase. But Ukrainians have learned to survive in difficult conditions when there is no electricity, water supply or other necessary resources for a long period of time.

The Ukrainian people are united and will definitely not back down. Because then we would not only lose our citizenship and our passport – but our entire identity. And the right to choose our own path.

Ukrainians stand close together – even on the anniversary of the war.Image: dpa / Kay Nietfeld

I don’t think Bachmut will fall. But the Russian army is still trying to conquer the whole East – although not very successfully. So the East remains the area where humanitarian workers are most needed.

I think it is unlikely that the Russian leadership will carry out its nuclear threats. That would do no good.

We all hope that Victory Day will come later this year. The Ukrainian territories will be liberated and returned. The Ukrainian leadership will insist on security guarantees and peace agreements for the benefit of the entire civilized world, not just Ukraine.

Our country will not be the last in case of defeat. Russia will continue to move west.

But it is also clear: After Victory Day we will have many tasks to do – rebuilding the destroyed cities, restoring normal life, increasing our security, medical and psychological treatment of the traumatized people…”

The military expert

Ralph Thiele is a retired colonel and has a degree in business administration. After his military career, Thiele opted for civilian life and is today, among other things, the chairman of the Politic-Military Society, a network of members from ministries and offices, foundations and universities, the armed forces, the media and Pursue. During his military career, he was a member of the planning staff of the defense minister and the private office of the NATO commander-in-chief.

Security expert Ralph Thiele.Image: Private

“The future is difficult to predict. There is always a range of possibilities. There’s a world without people on the left. That’s why people are warning about nuclear escalation. This can get out of control. In war there is always the question, can the spiral of escalation be tamed? On the right there is prosperous Ukraine. The victory of freedom.

The truth probably lies between these two variants.

If you look at it right now, Ukraine is 20 percent occupied. We see a war of attrition and on the Ukrainian side also a shortage of weapons, ammunition and people. It will probably continue to escalate.

US foreign policy expert Victoria Nuland has been steering America’s engagement in Ukraine for over ten years. And she considers Ukrainian attacks on Crimea to be a legitimate objective. So Washington would probably support that.

US foreign policymaker Victoria Nuland controls America’s engagement in Ukraine.Image: AP / Eranga Jayawardena

And that is also what we are likely to see in the future: another war of attrition on the front line and sporadic Ukrainian attacks towards Crimea.

The end of the war could also end differently. Basically, I want a ceasefire that will lead to a secure peace. This could be about China play a key role. There is increasing diplomatic activity trying to steer in this direction. However, this will be a difficult path.

The most important thing is to support Ukraine as far as possible without risking a military escalation and regaining our own strength, i.e. strengthening NATO. In addition, a negotiation package must be put together that includes China if it is to be successful.“

The Faithful Helper

Watson met Marynka in Kharkiv in May. At the time, she was helping a group of church volunteers Eat to the embattled north of the city of Kharkiv. Marynka is 28 years old, lived in Kharkiv. In exactly the northern district of Saltivka, which she later also supplied. The same part of town where many houses were destroyed.

In Kharkiv, Marynka delivered food parcels to the embattled areas.Image: Private

“The year has passed very quickly. All I have from my life before the war is a small suitcase, a backpack with things and my collection of dinosaurs. As it turned out, this is enough to live on. Mine Opinion about the war: I believe that the active phase of the war should end in March. And that by the end of the year Ukraine will recapture all regions, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Crimea.

It’s hard to say exactly what will change, but I have confidence that it will. If you look at the Story one sees: every war eventually came to an end. And I believe very strongly that the war in my country will be over very soon.

Many of my friends and relatives are now at war. I have seen the aftermath of war with my own eyes, the devastation and the lives shattered. But Russia will compensate my state in full.

Why exactly do I believe that?

If you know people from Ukraine, they are different from other people: faith, hope, unity. i have faith And that makes me sure that it will be there soon.”

The escaped Russian

Dmitry does not want to kill Ukrainians. Before the first partial mobilization in Russia, he fled to Turkey via Central Asia. He says about his escape that it went smoother than that of his friends. However, his psyche has suffered massively since September. Dmitry is 26 years old and currently works as a translator. He and his partner want to go soon Berlin pull.

Iconic image – Dmitry doesn’t want to be recognized for security reasons.Image: Pexels / Deklanşör

“I’m an anxious person by nature and the last year has brought me nothing but fear and a sense of endless dismay.

I’m no expert on war, politics and foreign relations, so I have no idea how much longer this senseless war will go on. I want to believe it will be over soon, or at least I hope so.

I never supported the war – and that cost me my homeland, my country, my national identity and my friends. I don’t associate with this country, and I certainly don’t want to go back there. My former homeland has done enough damage to me and the world.

There is a saying that every war ends with a peace treaty sooner or later. That may be true, and I suspect that’s how this war will end. I don’t think Russia will win. I just wish that the innocent people of Ukraine will finally find peace and tranquility.

Tens of thousands of people have died in the war of aggression so far.Image: dpa / Kay Nietfeld

I don’t want to rant endlessly about the fate of Ukrainians, because as a Russian I don’t have the right to discuss it. I just want to say that I’m very, very sorry.

There is a famous Russian song by singer Monetochka called ‘Russian Ark’. In it is a line that reads, ‘The broken ark emerges from the depths. And we shall live forever, so shall we sail.’ That aligns with my feelings about all of this – no matter what will happen, we will live and deal with the consequences.

There’s no point in thinking about ‘shoulds’ and ‘shoulds’, but I would like to rewind and erase all the suffering this war has brought to everyone.”