The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) announced in his monthly press conference that he changed the expectation of the Gross domestic product (GDP) for this 2023.
However, Mario Correa Martínez, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies of the IMEFHe commented that this year’s environment continues to be challenging and GDP growth is below the 2% that should be observed as a minimum.
José Domingo Figueroa, national president of the IMEFmentioned that although the improvement in the expectation of the GDP“it should be noted that growth rates continue to be low for the country’s needs and for the potential that is estimated to be achievable.”
Domingo Figueroa pointed out that for companies and households in the country, the environment will continue to be challenging, and prudence will have to be prioritized in economic-financial decisions.
“Despite the fact that the forecasts for economic activity and inflation improved in the margin of the current delivery of our expectations survey, the expected economic scenario continues to be weak, with high uncertainty and with a series of latent risks, coming from both the global environment as well as the domestic one”, added the president of the IMEF.
Mario Correa Martínez also mentioned that different international organizations are projecting low growth rates and a weak economic environment.
“What is being mentioned so far, and the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) has just revealed it in its minutes, is a possibility of a slight recession and that perhaps there will be a quarter with a negative rate of growth, it would be a not so delicate economic situation, that is what is in the scenarios,” said Correa.
Interest rate
He IMEF provides that the Governing Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raise the reference rate by another 25 basis points in order to place it at 11.50% in its next monetary policy decision agreed on May 18.
“We are expecting an increase of 25 basis points in the next decision by Banxico and hence it will remain constant for several months,” said Domingo Figueroa.
Mario Correa Martínez specified that the reference interest rate would begin to decrease until 2024, although it is not necessary to claim victory with the issue of inflation.
“The National Consumer Price Index has been slowing overall, but the core is very stubborn. Above all, the part of services continues to grow and this is happening not only in Mexico, but also in the United States. As long as it is not clear that inflation is now definitely going down, it will be very difficult for central banks to lower their rates,” explained Correa Martínez.
He IMEF anticipates that the interest rate Bank of Mexico is located at 11.50% in 2023, while inflation would be located at 5.2% per year.
kg
