Friday, January 13, 2023 | 6:00 a.m.
Inflation in December was above what the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, had raised as a projection of the Undersecretariat for Macroeconomic Programming: it was 5.1%. It didn’t start with a four. However, the number was also below the levels of 5.5% projected by the consultants in the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the BCRA.
All in all, inflation for the year closed at 94.8%, below the 100% that was projected. In this way, the 2022 price increase is the highest since 1991, when it reached 84% at the beginning of the Convertibility Law.
INDEC published inflation data for December yesterday, through the National CPI report. Inflation accelerated slightly compared to the 4.9% that the statistical entity itself had published in November. But it was well below the levels of July and August, when price dynamics never dipped below 6%. Strictly speaking, it was 7.4% in July, the peak; 7% in August; 6.2% in September and 6.3% in October.
From INDEC they highlighted: “The division with the highest increase in the month was Restaurants and hotels (7.2%), followed by Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.1%). In turn, in December the increase in domestic service stood out, which had an impact on Home equipment and maintenance (5.9%); of fuels, with incidence in Transportation (5.8%); and the prepaid medicine quota, within the Health division (5.7%)”.
And they added: “The rise in Food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.7%) was the one that had the greatest impact in most regions. The increase in Fruits stood out; Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices; Bread and cereals; and, in some of the regions, Vegetables, tubers and legumes”.
On the annual basis, on the other hand, the item that by far increased the most was clothing and footwear, with an increase of 120.8%, followed by restaurants and hotels with a rise of 108.8%. Food climbed no less than 95%, in line with general inflation. And those three items were also the ones that had the greatest impact on annual inflation: food was the one that had the greatest traction and explained 23.89 points of the 94.8% rise. Restaurants and hotels added another 12.07 points and clothing and footwear another 11.58 points.
The highest in 31 years
According to historical statistics, this is the highest annual cumulative in the last 31 years. It is that in 1990, when the price increase was 1,343.9% per year, a higher than that of 2022 was not reached. to govern convertibility. In recent years, the highest had been in 2021 with 50.9%.
Regarding the behavior of prices by region of the country, Greater Buenos Aires was the region with the highest monthly increase, standing at 5.3%; while Patagonia was the least hit by the rise with an index of 4.5%. In the middle were the Pampean region with 5.1%, Cuyo with 5%, the Northeast with 4.8% and the Northwest with 4.7%.
The 2023 budget prepared by the team of the Minister of Economy established, on the other hand, an inflation of 60% for this year. The gap with the private ones is almost 40 points.
Inflation is, in all opinion polls, the main concern of Argentines. It is a fact that the ruling party and the opposition take into account on the way to the presidential elections in October.
Private economists believe that, given the persistence of the increases and especially that of the core measure, the slowdown in times of great distortion of relative prices continues to be a challenge. That is why, they point out, it will have to be confirmed in an electoral year with probable income updates, expected rate increases and a difficulty in delaying the exchange rate due to the need to accumulate reserves.
the nea
For the Northeast region, inflation was 4.8% during the month of December. The price increase during the 12 months of 2022 in Chaco, Corrientes, Formosa and Misiones reached 96%. The figure is also the highest compared to the other regions of the country.
As in the month of November, the greatest increase occurred in the category of clothing and footwear, with 115.5% during the whole of last year. It is followed by the restaurants and hotels section with 104.9%.
Following this line, the other sections that have increased the most throughout 2022 in our region are transportation, goods and services, and alcoholic beverages.
Massa: “Calls attention”
The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, highlighted that when his administration began, at the beginning of August “we were with inflation at 7.4% and in the first 60 days we parked at 6%. We aspired to November and December with 5%”. The official acknowledged that the rise of 4.9% in November “called attention, because it occurred mainly in food and clothing.” Now, “the goal is to put
the third ahead in April ”, assured Massa. INDEC explained that the prices surveyed that are within agreement programs between the State and the business sector for December represent 2.88% of the total prices surveyed in the GBA. Regarding annual inflation of 94.8%, seasonal products presented an increase of 134.1%, regulated products and services 85.7%, and Core inflation 90.6%.
The Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged
